Category Archives: warmer prediction fails

Climate Model Forecast Temperatures Are Too High Study Says


Look at these charts that show correlation. 

So, there you are.     You have seen it all now.  See how easy It is to make correlations.

BUT WAIT, I forgot to show you the most important one of all.   It’s shows how actual measured global temperatures correlates with the global temperature forecasts made by the climate models that the catastrophic man-made global warming (CMNGW) scientists use. 

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President Trump Dumps Alarmist Panel-Draining The Swamp Continues


The climate alarmists tell the public that the sea level is going rise 7 to 15 feet by the end of this century.  The crops are going to fail.  There will be mass extinctions.  The extent of the horrors awaiting us in the future are almost unlimited.  The basis for all these catastrophes is the predicted rise in temperature based upon the computer models they have programed. For example, the sea level rise is predicated on a rise of temperature in the range of 4 to 7° C  or greater by the year 2100.  Without the big rise in global temperature, all these supposed disasters will not come to pass.

These computers have been forecasting temperature for many years.  How are they doing?  If a company had their operations run by these computers, they would be out of business by now.  Look at some of the recent revelations. The New American posted “Top Climate Alarmist: Computer Models Wrong, Skeptics Right on “Pause”.  From that posting we get this:

“Count on the Fake News media to ignore a huge admission by a Climategate scientist that there has been no measurable global warming over the past 20 years — something he has previously vociferously denied. The admission by Dr. Benjamin Santer, a top global-warming alarmist, should have made headlines — but, of course it didn’t.

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What’s Behind The NOAA Temperature Adjustments?


Tony Heller, of RealClimateScience.com  has kept track of temperature data manipulation for some period of time.  He put together a short video that demonstrates how the catastrophic man-made global warming theory people make the past cooler and the present hotter.  They do this to make you believe things are bad and that they will get worse if you don’t get religion and do what they say.  After you look at Heller’s Video,  you may get a new meaning for “man-made” global warming.

 

cbdakota

Dr. Judith Curry Believes the RoadMap to Zero CO2 Emissions Is Infeasible.


 

 

I have promised some critical views from skeptics regarding the Paris Agreement Roadmap to zero CO2 emissions by 2050.  If you need to get up to speed regarding  the Paris Agreement Roadmap,  please review my last two postings. 

Let’s begin with Judith Curry’s thoughts on this topic from her posting of 25 March titled A roadmap for meeting Paris emissions reductions goals”.

JC reflections

Apart from the issues raised in this paper, there are several other elephants in this room:  there is growing evidence of much smaller climate sensitivity to CO2; and even if these drastic emissions reductions occurred, we would see little impact on the climate in the 21st century (even if you believe the climate models).

I think that what this paper has done is important:  laying out what it would actually take to make such drastic emissions reductions.  Even if we solve the electric power problem, there is still the problem of transportation, not to mention land use.  Even if all this was technically possible, the cost would almost certainly be infeasible.

As Oliver Geden states, its time to ask policy makers whether they are going to attempt do this or not.  It seems rather futile to make token emissions reductions at substantial cost.

Deciding that all this is impractical or infeasible seems like a rational response to me.  The feasible responses are going with nuclear power or undertaking a massive R&D effort to develop new emission free energy technologies.  Independent of all this, we can reduce vulnerability from extreme weather events (whether or not they are exacerbated by AGW) and the slow creep of sea level rise.

 

Dr. Curry’s remarks are very succinct.  To be a success, the roadmap requires many inventions that to date have been sought after but not delivered.  And she points out, as noted in this blog on a number of occasions, the climate sensitivity used by the warmers gives temperature increases that are unsupportable.  This roadmap is necessary in large part because it is predicated on those exaggerated temperatures the climate models produce.  That is Dr. Curry’s “elephants in the room.”

And she thinks it is way too costly.  I believe she is spot on.

Dr. Currys posting can be accessed this link https://judithcurry.com/2017/03/25/a-roadmap-for-meeting-paris-emissions-reductions-goals/

Some additional comments to follow in the next posting.

cbdakota

Daily Mail Says–NOAA Duped World Politicians With Manipulated Global Warming Data


Whistleblower Dr. John Bates really has stirred up a hornet’s nest.  He says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s(NOAA)  global temperature revisions made just before the Paris COP meeting are suspect.  Skeptics have been critical of those revisions from the very beginning.  The UK Daily Mail posted “Exposed: How world leaders were duped into investing billions over manipulated global warming data.”    The Daily Mail opened up their posting with this:

“The Mail on Sunday today reveals astonishing evidence that the organisation that is the world’s leading source of climate data rushed to publish a landmark paper that exaggerated global warming and was timed to influence the historic Paris Agreement on climate change.

dupped-politicians

A high-level whistleblower has told this newspaper that America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) breached its own rules on scientific integrity when it published the sensational but flawed report, aimed at making the maximum possible impact on world leaders including Barack Obama and David Cameron at the UN climate conference in Paris in 2015.

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NorthWest Passage Still Not Open–Someone Call Al Gore And Tell Him


Russian ice breakers escorted cargo ships from Archangel to Pervek on an Arctic Ocean trip beginning on 14 December 2016 and arriving on 7 January 2017.  It was thought that the temperature and the condition of the ice were such that they could make the return trip.  But they did not get far before they were stopped by very thick ice.  They had aerial surveys made of the of the route back to Archangel and concluded that it would not be passable for the cargo ships.  The map of the area of the Arctic Ocean were the ship traveled is shown below:

arctic-icebreakersMap courtesy of The Siberian Times. 

From The Siberian Times comes this quote:

But now a spokesman for Rosmorport has announced the icebreakers will delay a return until probably May or early June. ‘The vessels will remain for the winter because of the very heavy severe ice conditions,’ he said.

All the vessel got out of the ice, and three of them – Captain Dranitsyn and the two cargo ships – returned to Pevek. The Admiral Makarov moved further east to continue working for Rosmorport in clearing sea routes.

Officials said the icebreakers could have gone further through the ice but there was ‘a very high risk of significant damage’ to the supply ships, and it was decided to postpone the return to Archangelsk.”

 I guess the North-West Passage is still not open for business.  Hard to believe because that famous guru, Al Gore said the Arctic Ocean would be ice free by 2010.  And isn’t he the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for such prized predictions as that one.

As an aside, I often forget how small the distance between Russia and the United States (State of Alaska) is.  During the last glacial era, that point is said to be the “land bridge” that began the population of North America.

cbdakota

Administrator cbdakota Issues EPA Mission Statement


°If cbdakota were appointed the EPA Administrator, he might begin his work issuing this statement:

I thank President Trump for my nomination and the vote approving the nomination.

Our mission will be that the EPA continues to protect the environment and at the same time does not stifle our Nation’s productivity.

secret-epa-scienceOur initial review of the EPA has found some activities, regulations and guidance documents that need to be critically assessed, cancelled or expanded.  The following are several of the items that illustrate the issues we uncovered and our plan to deal with these issues:

Endangerment Finding:

The Endangerment Finding (EF) needs to be re-evaluated, revised and updated using current science.  The EF is largely based upon the IPCC pre-2007 climate science, making it more than 10 years old.  Furthermore, the projections of temperature, sea level and other variables do not match the actual measured temperature and sea level data. These EF projections greatly overstate the size of the changes thus putting into question the amount of endangerment.

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