I have been wondering if the very quiet Solar Cycle (SC)24 would result in a slowing down of the rise of global temperatures. And that it might even halt the rise or perhaps even result in a downward trend. Certainly, the prognostications by many of my compadres, the skeptics, have been for that to happen. I look at my go-to anomaly temperature chart, the satellite measuring system know as UAH, (University of Alabama at Huntsville) and I see that the temperature continues to rise. The Watts Up With That site’s ENSO meter (below) had not gone into the la nina area, but in fact, seems to be indicating more el nino. However, for several months, now,
it is in the neutral zone.
And the UAH temperature anomaly has taken a significant two month drop.
Dr Spencer’s site posted “UAH Global Temperature U pdate for April 2020:+0.38 deg. C. Spencer says:
“In April, 2020, the Northern Hemisphere experienced its 2nd largest 2-month drop in temperature in the 497-month satellite record.”
The UAH temperature anomaly is shown below.
One can see the last two El Ninos on this chart. The El Nino that peaked in 2010 followed by a La Nina brought the anomaly down to the zero line. Then the temperature anomaly began to rise and peaked out during the 2016 -2017 El Nino. But after a drop, it turned into a rather depressing climb.
More on Solar Cycle 24. It began in December 2008. It has been the least active SC for over 100 years. The SCs activity beginning with SC17 through SC 23 is unprecedented and this period is often called the “Modern Maximum”.
Sunspots are considered a proxy for solar activity. The more sunspots the more activity. Sunspots were first recorded by Galiello in 1610. Formal recording of sunspots began about 1750. The naming of SCs began from that time. SC nominally are 11 years long.
So, does mean that low solar activity may not have a significant, if any effect on global temperature. But maybe there is a time delay. I guess we will have to wait and see.
When you look at the following chart, there is one very notable dip in the number of sunspots attributed to SC5 and 6 beginning about about 1800. The temperatures recorded during this time dropped significantly. For example the Thames River is said to have frozen over in the winter during that period. This period is known as the Maunder Minimum. Chart is courtesy of Solan In fo
SC 21, 22, 23 and 24 are plotted on the following chart. Comparing SCs 21, 22, 23 to SC 24 makes evident the low activity of SC24. The Chart is courtesy of Solan Info.
Because SC 24 is reasonably a match to SC5 and 6, one can see why many of our scientists considered history would repeat itself by experiencing low global temperature
This is probably the time to see what some experts are prediction for SC 25. What will SC25 turn out to be. The next posting will provide expert solar scientist predictions for SC25’s likely activity.