Category Archives: sun and climate

Solar Cycle 24 February Update And Some Thoughts On Cycle 25.


There were no visible Sunspots on 11 March 2017.  There was but one Sunspot cluster showing on 12 March.  This will become more common as Solar Cycle continues on its way to its demise and the beginning of Cycle 25.  From Wiki, we get the record of The “Spotless days at the end of the cycle”.   These numbers have been recorded since Cycle 9 that ended in March 1855.  The recent “grand maximum” beginning with Cycle 18 thru Cycle 22 provides us with these numbers:

Cycle Start/Finish Max sunspots Sunspotless days-end of cycle
18 Jan44/Feb54 151.8 446
19 Feb54/Oct64 201.3 227
20 Oct64/May76 110.6 272
21 May76/Mar86 164.5 273
22 Mar86/Jun96 158.5 309
23 Jun96/Jan08 120.8 817
24 Jan08/   ?   81.9 (Apr14) ?

 

Cycle 24 has been much less active than its recent predecessors. It was ushered in following 817 spotless days.  This appears to be significant but we probably need to see how this plays out at the end of Cycle 24 and its effect on Cycle 25.

The current, seemingly, most used way to predict the size of Cycle 25 is examining the Solar Polar Field Strength of Cycle 24.  As noted in previous postings the technique is to examine the average field strength after the Maximum occurs.  Typically, it levels out.  The average field strength is computed by adding North and South field strengths and dividing by 2.  Below is a plot of the field strength for Cycles 21,22,23 and 24. Looking at the left

plot, so far the Cycle 24 average is about 50. The high point for Cycle 23 looks to have been about 70. This suggests that Cycle25 will be smaller than 24.  But Cycle 24 average field strength of  nominally about 50, could become larger over the next year. So again, we will have to wait and see.

(Unfortunately, the expanded left chart is unavailable.An  expanded left chart was put in this posting but it was too large to show the period of the Cycle 23 and 24.)

 

Below is the February 2017 Cycle 24 chart comparing it to Cycle 23.

cbdakota

CO2 And Climate Change Science–Part 2: A Summary Of The Science


The website CO2 Coalition has a post titled “Climate Change: A summary of the Science”.  It one of the best summaries I have come across lately.  It is fairly long, so I could do my usual and summarize it, but there is virtually nothing in it that I would want to skip over.  So, I will not deprive the reader. I will put it in, in its entirety.  I hope that my posting yesterday will fill in any blanks you may have otherwise had.

cbdakota

==========================================================

News 26 Feb, 2017

Climate Change: A Summary of the Science

The climate change science is settled, but not how the climate alarmists want you to think.

Continue reading

CO2 And Climate Change Science–Part 1 Carbon Cycle


This posting sets out a preliminary understanding of the “carbon cycle” that you may not be aware of. The next posting will build off of this to lay out the science of climate change.

The Sun is the Earth’s source of energy. The energy is transported in the form of waves (radiant energy) known as electromagnetic energy. The Sun’s enormous surface temperatures generates these waves. The waves have a wide range of frequencies. In general, the waves are known familiarly as x rays, ultraviolet, sunlight, short wave infrared, radio waves, and microwaves. These waves heat the Earth.  Not all of the waves get through to the Earth’s surface.  Some are absorbed like Ultraviolet by ozone;  some are reflected back into space by clouds; and some are scattered by encountering mater in the atmosphere.

Much of the  Suns energy is reemitted from the Earth as longwave infrared. Some of the reemitted energy is delayed on its way back out into space by the so called greenhouse gases and water vapor. This slowdown is the reason the Earth has a habitable temperature. The primary greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide (CO2).  However, water vapor is the largest factor, by far, in the greenhouse effect.

Continue reading

CERN CLOUD Study Says IPCC Climate Sensitivity Is Too High.  Svensmark Vindicated Some What.


Water vapor is acknowledged to be the primary “greenhouse gas”.  In the warmer’s theory, any increase of global temperature due to atmospheric CO2, results in a corresponding increase of water vapor.  The impact on temperature is a tripling of that which would occur from CO2 alone. This feedback loop is called Climate Sensitivity.

Climate Sensitivity

clouds-reflecting-sun-rays

Actual temperature records show that this is not happening.  There has been only a slight rise in global temperatures over the past 20 years and that rise may have been from natural causes rather than CO2. See this argument in this posting. The most recent IPCC global warming report was ambiguous on this issue, apparently recognizing that their long held standard 3X increase was in trouble. Studies by many groups have demonstrated the multiplier is not 3X and at least 2X at best.  See the following chart:

Continue reading

Challenge Conventional Wisdom


The website inc.com/quora posted “Why You Should Never, Ever Stop Challenging Conventional Wisdom”.  I have lifted most of their little gems of wisdom. I am posting this as it fits well with my previous blog about theTheory of Man-Made Global Warming Effect.

The experts are usually wrong.

Experts (those who predict the future for a living) are, more often than not, dart-throwers. They perform no better than chance. And recently they have performed even worse than chance.

“Economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions.”

We are ALL biased. We see the world through a very hazy prism of our experiences.

There is no unbiased news outlet. Even “real news” has an element of untruth to it. Almost every news story I had intimate knowledge of made a significant reporting mistake of factual error in the story.  

We’re human, and we make mistakes. We’re human, and we see the world with our strong bias. We overweight individual sources and underweight others. We discount data that is very good, and we rely on data that is wrong. We see patterns when there are none and see coincidences when there are conspiracies

 

The “expert” can be dangerous. Continue reading

Theory of Man-Made Global Warming Effect–New Super Computer Cheyenne


Jeane Dixon was guest on late night TV as well as frequently in magazines and other media because she made predictions-some of which came true but mostly were off target. For years, media featured her New Year predictions. Her notoriety sprung from her prediction that the 1960 Presidential election would be won by a Democrat but the winner would not live out his term.  Following President John Kennedy’s assassination, someone remembered her prediction and the rest, as they say, is history.

From Wiki, comes the definition of the Jean Dixon Effect.

John Allen Paulos, a mathematician at Temple University, coined the term ‘the Jeane Dixon effect’, which references a tendency to promote a few correct predictions while ignoring a larger number of incorrect predictions.[1] Many of Dixon’s predictions proved erroneous, such as her claims that a dispute over the offshore Chinese islands of Quemoy and Matsu would trigger the start of World War III in 1958, that American labor leader Walter Reuther would run for President of the United States in the 1964 presidential election, that the second child of Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau and his young wife Margaret would be a girl (it was a boy), and that the Russians would be the first to put men on the moon.[15][16]

I think it is time to declare the Theory of Man-Made Global Warming Effect.  The theory certainly fits the Effect definition as posited by John Allen Paulos.

cheyenne_plumbing-450And it is about time to do that.  A new, ultra-fast computer, the Cheyenne, has just been brought on-line in Wyoming.  It will be used to do studies, some of which will be related to “man-made global warming”.  What we can expect are more erroneous predictions made faster than they used to be.  That’s progress.  And of course, it means more doom-laden stories for the media to circulate.

cbdakota

German Solar Scientists Say Solar Cycle 25 Will Look Like Cycle 24.


German solar scientists, Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt say that Solar Cycle 24 is the “..third weakest cycle since observations began in 1755.”  The Accumulated Sunspot Anomaly until 97 months after cycle start is shown on the figure below:

Figure 2: Comparison of all the solar cycles.  The chart shows the accumulated sunspot number anomaly from the mean value.

The mean value is noted at zero and Cycle 24 is running 3817 spots less than the mean and only two other Cycle had fewer.    Note that the seven Cycles that preceded Cycle 24 had more sunspots than the mean.

Continue reading