Rebloging Dr. Roy Spencer’s posting which can be reached by clicking here.
The season is starting slowly; however, it may surprise us. I was in Tampa, Florida on 24 October 2005. For a day or so, it looked like Tampa might be the landfall. In the end, it made landfall south of Tampa, fortunately for my son whose house we were fixing up to sell.
July 31st, 2017 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
Wednesday of this week will mark 4,300 days since the last major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger, 111-129 mph maximum sustained winds) made landfall in the U.S.
That’s almost 12 years.
The last major hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. was Wilma striking Florida on October 24, 2005, one of several strong hurricanes to hit the U.S. that year. The unusual hurricane activity in 2005 was a central focus of Al Gore’s 2006 movie, An Inconvenient Truth, in which Mr. Gore suggested 2005 was going to be the new normal. As you might recall, Gore went on to receive a Nobel Peace Prize for helping to raise awareness of the severe weather dangers from global warming.
Instead, the bottom dropped out of Atlantic hurricane activity after 2005. The “drought” of landfalling U.S. major hurricanes continues, and as seen in this graphic from WeatherStreet.com, no hurricanes have yet formed anywhere in the Atlantic basin in 2017, despite the forecast for an above-normal hurricane season:
The website CO2 Coalition has a post titled “Climate Change: A summary of the Science”. It one of the best summaries I have come across lately. It is fairly long, so I could do my usual and summarize it, but there is virtually nothing in it that I would want to skip over. So, I will not deprive the reader. I will put it in, in its entirety. I hope that my posting yesterday will fill in any blanks you may have otherwise had.
News 26 Feb, 2017
Climate Change: A Summary of the Science
The climate change science is settled, but not how the climate alarmists want you to think.
Posted in AGW, chemistry, China, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, CO2, crop yields, Environment, fossil fuels, Global Temperatures, Media Bias, Ocean Acidification, photosynthesis, Sea Level, Solar Activity, Storms/hurricanes, Sun, sun and climate, The Pause
This posting sets out a preliminary understanding of the “carbon cycle” that you may not be aware of. The next posting will build off of this to lay out the science of climate change.
The Sun is the Earth’s source of energy. The energy is transported in the form of waves (radiant energy) known as electromagnetic energy. The Sun’s enormous surface temperatures generates these waves. The waves have a wide range of frequencies. In general, the waves are known familiarly as x rays, ultraviolet, sunlight, short wave infrared, radio waves, and microwaves. These waves heat the Earth. Not all of the waves get through to the Earth’s surface. Some are absorbed like Ultraviolet by ozone; some are reflected back into space by clouds; and some are scattered by encountering mater in the atmosphere.
Much of the Suns energy is reemitted from the Earth as longwave infrared. Some of the reemitted energy is delayed on its way back out into space by the so called greenhouse gases and water vapor. This slowdown is the reason the Earth has a habitable temperature. The primary greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide (CO2). However, water vapor is the largest factor, by far, in the greenhouse effect.
Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, CO2, Global Temperatures, photosynthesis, Radiation, Sea Level, Solar Activity, Storms/hurricanes, Sun, sun and climate
Jeane Dixon was guest on late night TV as well as frequently in magazines and other media because she made predictions-some of which came true but mostly were off target. For years, media featured her New Year predictions. Her notoriety sprung from her prediction that the 1960 Presidential election would be won by a Democrat but the winner would not live out his term. Following President John Kennedy’s assassination, someone remembered her prediction and the rest, as they say, is history.
From Wiki, comes the definition of the Jean Dixon Effect.
John Allen Paulos, a mathematician at Temple University, coined the term ‘the Jeane Dixon effect’, which references a tendency to promote a few correct predictions while ignoring a larger number of incorrect predictions. Many of Dixon’s predictions proved erroneous, such as her claims that a dispute over the offshore Chinese islands of Quemoy and Matsu would trigger the start of World War III in 1958, that American labor leader Walter Reuther would run for President of the United States in the 1964 presidential election, that the second child of Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau and his young wife Margaret would be a girl (it was a boy), and that the Russians would be the first to put men on the moon.
I think it is time to declare the Theory of Man-Made Global Warming Effect. The theory certainly fits the Effect definition as posited by John Allen Paulos.
And it is about time to do that. A new, ultra-fast computer, the Cheyenne, has just been brought on-line in Wyoming. It will be used to do studies, some of which will be related to “man-made global warming”. What we can expect are more erroneous predictions made faster than they used to be. That’s progress. And of course, it means more doom-laden stories for the media to circulate.
°If cbdakota were appointed the EPA Administrator, he might begin his work issuing this statement:
I thank President Trump for my nomination and the vote approving the nomination.
Our mission will be that the EPA continues to protect the environment and at the same time does not stifle our Nation’s productivity.
Our initial review of the EPA has found some activities, regulations and guidance documents that need to be critically assessed, cancelled or expanded. The following are several of the items that illustrate the issues we uncovered and our plan to deal with these issues:
The Endangerment Finding (EF) needs to be re-evaluated, revised and updated using current science. The EF is largely based upon the IPCC pre-2007 climate science, making it more than 10 years old. Furthermore, the projections of temperature, sea level and other variables do not match the actual measured temperature and sea level data. These EF projections greatly overstate the size of the changes thus putting into question the amount of endangerment.
Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, CO2, CO2 positive feedback, crop yields, Drought, Environment, EPA, Global Temperatures, Government Regulations, IPCC, Sea Level, Storms/hurricanes, The Pause, Tornados, US Manufacturing Companies, warmer prediction fails
This afternoon, I received an email from the Heartland Institute saying about what I said in my yesterday’s posting. It also clears up the misinformation put out by the New York Times. The Heartland email:
Can the media greenwash Trump?
President-elect Trump met with the New York Times and the media quickly unleashed an interesting spin.
The “breaking” (fake) news story was that Trump had somehow changed his views on global warming.
This would seem a major flip flop after Trump repeatedly said during the campaign he would withdraw the U.S. from the UN’s Paris climate agreement and vowed to set the U.S. back on a pro-energy course.
CFACT’s friend Joe Bast, head of the Heartland Institute, publicized a more detailed transcript of Trump’s meeting with the Times and, lo and behold, what Trump actually said is right in keeping with his campaign pledges.
Marc Morano posted a detailed analysis at Climate Depot, picked up today by the Drudge Report, to help clear the record about this exchange. As Marc explains:
Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, ClimateGate, CO2, Environment, EPA, Global Temperatures, IPCC, Media Bias, President Trump, Sea Level, Storms/hurricanes, Tornados, United Nations
Roger Pielke, Jr is a professor at Colorado University. He would probably would call himself a “lukewarmer” a label for those who believe that man has contributed to global warming but not necessarily leading to catastrophic climate in the near future. He is for a carbon tax which most of we skeptics do not think necessary.
Pielke has said that there is no apparent connection between the rise of atmospheric CO2 and hurricanes, tornados, droughts, or other “weather extremes”’. The IPCC ( the bible of the catastrophic global warming crowd) has said the same thing—although the warmers don’t like to spread that around. Pielke has said that the increased cost of weather damage is the result of escalating cost of buildings, houses and the like and the increase of people siting facilities on the coastlines. Insurance organizations have finally come to that same realization. So why is it that he has been the subject of scurrilous attacks by people paid to do so by John Podesta’s Center for American Progress (CAP)? Because he was publishing on sites where people were reading what he said. He also has testified at Congressional hearings where he discussed his points about “extreme weather”. Pielke was so severely attacked, including being investigated by a member of Congress, he quit doing his studies about climate.
Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, CO2, Environment, EPA, Government Regulations, IPCC, Media Bias, NGO's eg Greenpeace/WWF, President Trump, Storms/hurricanes