In an earlier posting, the case for CO2 controlling global temperature change was discussed. Several cases were examined that suggest that CO2 probably is a minor factor. Yes, I do have a bias that the Sun is most likely the main driver of global climate. But I believe that bias is well founded.
As I began to prepare a posting on this topic, on 10 June a new posting on WattsUpWithThat by Mike Jonas appeared. It covers, most of what I had planned to say. He says it very well, albeit in a lot of words. His Figure 7, “Correlation of sunspot cycle length with temperature” is thought by some to have been disproven, so you may want to tread lightly on that. I also think that he should have used an article from December 2016 CERN publication that strengthened his case for the Svensmark theory of galactic cosmic rays/cloud formation/cooling. See my comment on that by clicking here.
My thoughts on this topic would be less informative than those by Mike Jonas. Thus I am reblogging his posting:
Indirect Effects of the Sun on Earth’s Climate
By Mike Jonas 10 June 2017
For a long time, I have been bitterly disappointed at the blinkered lopsided attitude of the IPCC and of many climate scientists, by which they readily accepted spurious indirect effects from CO2-driven global warming (the “feedbacks”), yet found a range of excuses for ignoring the possibility that there might be any indirect effects from the sun. For example, in AR4 2.7.1 they say “empirical results since the TAR have strengthened the evidence for solar forcing of climate change” but there is nothing in the models for this, because there is “ongoing debate“, or it “remains ambiguous“, etc, etc.
In this article, I explore the scientific literature on possible solar indirect effects on climate, and suggest a reasonable way of looking at them. This should also answer Leif Svalgaard’s question, though it seems rather unlikely that he would be unaware of any of the material cited here. Certainly just about everything in this article has already appeared on WUWT; the aim here is to present it in a single article (sorry it’s so long). I provide some links to the works of people like Jasper Kirkby, Nir Shaviv and Nigel Calder. For those who have time, those works are worth reading in their entirety.
Table of Contents:
1. Henrik Svensmark
3. Galactic Cosmic Rays
5. The Non-Linear System
6. A Final Quirk
To read the entire posting click here
Posted in AGW, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, CO2, cosmic rays, Earth Orbit, IPCC, Solar Activity, Solar Cycle 24, Solar Flux, Solar System, Sun, sun and climate, Sunspots
Back when there was temporary shortage of natural gas, that fossil fuel was the favorite of warmers. When it became abundant, they were against it. They just pretend to be even handed. Well what about nuclear energy? It doesn’t produce carbon dioxide (CO2) but they do not like it. My guess is that many of them are just following through on their objective of destroying capitalism.
However, a group of influential warmers now say they were wrong to oppose nuclear energy.
At the Paris COP21 in December 2015, a press conference was held where 4 noted warmers announced that they were going to back development of nuclear energy.
Posted in AGW, Alternative Energy, China, Climate Alarmism, CO2, Coal, Electricity from Coal, Environment, EPA, Government Regulations, IPCC, Nuclear Energy, Renewable Energy, Solar System, Windpower
How Cycle 24 June Sunspot plot will look when the new Sunspot numbering system is used is not yet clear. Using the “old Wolf system” that is the International Smoothed Sunspot number basis, it would be expressed as 57.2 thirty day average versus last months number of 58.8. The number for June 2015 is estimated to be 46.9 when the smoothing process is employed. What ever the measuring system, Cycle 24 is still heading downward to a minimum.
VOX.com has a page with “40 maps that explain the universe”. Photos and drawing plus text are there for your review. Some of the illustrations are really eye catching. For example:
Even a single comet is pretty darn big
This is the comet 67P/C-G — which the Philae probe landed on in November 2014 — superimposed on Los Angeles. In terms of space, the comet is absolutely tiny: just 3.5 miles wide.
Solar Cycle 24 activity, using Sunspots as the proxy, is slowing down considerably. The International number for March was 38.4. The smoothed International Sunspot number is estimated at 56.1. The March number will not be official for another 6 months. The chart below, the black line, labeled Ri is the International number which is the sum of the Rnorth (red) and Rsouth (green) Sunspot numbers.
Climate cycles are continuously happening on Earth since its beginning estimated to be some 4.5 billion years ago. Detailing the earliest climate cycles can only be done by painting with the broadest of brushes. In more recent times, proxies, such as ice cores and oxygen isotope measurements are available for use in reconstructing these cycles. The globe has experienced glaciers in relatively recent times and in the not too distant future will surely experience glaciers again. The profound changes that take place resulting in glacial periods are of great interest.
Posted in AGW, Environment, glaciers, Global Temperatures, Greenland, Ice Melt, Interglacial periods, Sea Ice, Solar System, Sun, sun and climate
The Mars Rover Curiosity drilled in the John Klein area of Mars, (about 500 meters East of where it landed) and the sedimentary rock samples were passed to the on-board analyzers. The objective was to determine if the minerals necessary to maintain life were in this sample. Carbon, oxygen and sulfur in various forms were found. The NASA team has concluded that the John Klein area was once a fresh water environment that would have been favorable to organic life. Other Rovers samplings have found areas that once contained water but the conditions were not considered suitable to support organic life. On March 15 2013, the NASA team provided an informative video “Curiosity Rover Hits Paydirt”. It can be seen by clicking on the link below:
NASA confirms that a 2 mile wide comet, discovered by amateur Russian Astronomers, is coming our way. The comet is know as ISON. According to NASA:
“Comet ISON appears on course to achieve sungrazer status as it passes within a solar diameter of Sun’s surface in late 2013 November. Whatever survives will then pass nearest the Earth in late 2013 December,” NASA astronomers explained in a posting. ‘Astronomers around the world will be tracking this large dirty snowball closely to better understand its nature and how it might evolve during the next 15 months’ “The comet, which is estimated to be nearly two miles wide, will likely be one of the largest comets to ever pass Earth. While there is a chance that ISON will disintegrate when it approaches the sun, some astronomers say heat from the sun will vaporize ices in its body, creating what could be a spectacular tail.”
I think that a bright object in the sky at the end of December may remind some of another bright object in the sky several thousand years ago.
NASA has published the path that the Mars Rover, Curiosity, has taken since its August landing in the Gale Crater through the end of November, 2012. The distance traveled is about 500 meters. NASA says that the Gale Crater is approximately the size of Connecticut and Rhode Island combined, two small US States. In the Center of the crater is Mount Sharp, some 3.4 miles high above the crate floor. (Click on photo to enlarge.)
NASA tells of some of the work being done by Curiosity: “ It was at the easternmost waypoint on this map on Nov. 30, 2012. It worked on scoops of soil for a few weeks at the drift of windblown sand called “Rocknest.” The place called “Glenelg” is where three types of terrain meet. The depression called “Yellowknife Bay” is a potential location for selecting the first target rock for Curiosity’s hammering drill.” The next target will be Mount Sharp.
The NASA photo below is of Glenelg.
While the new, Mars Rover Curiosity is on everyone’s mind, Opportunity and Spirit Rovers have been on Mars since January of 2004. Spirit’s mission was ended in May of last year after being stuck in sand for about a year. Opportunity is still operational. Curiosity is more sophisticated than Opportunity and Spirit, but these two provided many new Martian mysteries to be solved. NASA’s website has some of the pictures that Opportunity has taken that are full of wonder for us Earth bound. You can see them here, and here and here.
The Mission Team for Opportunity and Spirit Rovers are to be awarded the Haley Space Flight Award. At launch the targeted operational life of these two rovers, on Mars, was estimated at 90 days.