Category Archives: Radiation

CO2 And Climate Change Science–Part 1 Carbon Cycle

This posting sets out a preliminary understanding of the “carbon cycle” that you may not be aware of. The next posting will build off of this to lay out the science of climate change.

The Sun is the Earth’s source of energy. The energy is transported in the form of waves (radiant energy) known as electromagnetic energy. The Sun’s enormous surface temperatures generates these waves. The waves have a wide range of frequencies. In general, the waves are known familiarly as x rays, ultraviolet, sunlight, short wave infrared, radio waves, and microwaves. These waves heat the Earth.  Not all of the waves get through to the Earth’s surface.  Some are absorbed like Ultraviolet by ozone;  some are reflected back into space by clouds; and some are scattered by encountering mater in the atmosphere.

Much of the  Suns energy is reemitted from the Earth as longwave infrared. Some of the reemitted energy is delayed on its way back out into space by the so called greenhouse gases and water vapor. This slowdown is the reason the Earth has a habitable temperature. The primary greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide (CO2).  However, water vapor is the largest factor, by far, in the greenhouse effect.

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Club du Soliel Posts Supportive Studies For Solar Forcing Climate Change

The warmers contend that no one studies the role the Sun plays in global warming any more. It is true that measurements of the Sun’s electromagnetic radiation received at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere, hardly changes. There are annual variations in the Sun’s energy received because the Earth’s orbit around the Sun is elliptical rather than circular. We are further away from the Sun in June than in January. However the distance effect averages out as it is essentially the same from year to year.

earths eliptical orbit600px-Seasons1

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Skeptic Reference Sources–Part 1

There are several excellent sources for Skeptics. This posting provides a the sunsource for Solar Research Papers.   The amount of Sun based research may surprise you, because the Warmers continue to tell us that the Sun is not important.

Some of the research is readily available and some is behind paywalls. But I suspect that just looking at the available research will occupy you for some long time.   The source is Club du Soleil  Click here to see  this source.

There are several additional resources that I will post soon.



There was an uptick in Sunspot numbers and F10.7cm radio flux.   Sunspots monthly average went up to 72  versus  55 in March.   Cycle 24’s  pattern seems somewhat reminiscent of Cycle 23 during its time at or near maximum. (Click on charts to enlarge.)
cycles23_24APRIL13Chart curtsey of
Sunspots appear to be in sync with the predicted path shown as the green line in the chart.

Solar Cycle 24 Update July 2012

Solar Cycle24 July sunspot and F 10.7cm radio flux numbers are up slightly from June.  Pretty much in line with the activity projection and much below that of Solar Cycle 23. (Click on Graphs for Clarity)

Large Filament on the Sun

The Sun currently has a filament that stretches more that 400,000km across the face. Filaments are formed in magnetic loops that hold relatively cool, dense gas suspended above the surface of the Sun. Because they are cooler than the photosphere they can look dark.

courtesy of

But when viewed in profile they look like a giant loop, called a prominence.

courtesy of NASA

Occasionally when these filaments collapse,  a coronal mass ejection (CME) can occur.   Because the filament is looking directly at the Earth,  a CME could cause problems.   Lets hope this does not happen.


Cycle 24 November 2011 Update

November Cycle 24 monthly sunspot count was nearly 100, which is by far the most active period since the cycle began.    The same goes for the F 10.7 Radio Flux that racked up a value of about 155.  But of these numbers are well below those of Cycle 23 at its peak.  Cycle 23 peak sunspot count was 170 and its F10.7 was about 235.   See the  November NOAA/SWPC charts below:


Solar Activity/Geomagnetism

The Ap index is a good proxy for overall solar activity. For two months it has declined.  We are seeing Cycle 24 peaks in F10.7, and sunspots simultaneously with this drop in Ap.  It may mean that the spots and F10.7 may soon be trending downward as well.

If you  are interested,  the following is a brief explanation of the various ways geomagnetism is expressed.

The magnetic activity indices K, Kp and ap are designed to measure the variations in the geomagnetic field that arise from current systems caused by regular solar radiation changes. Other irregular current systems produce magnetic field changes caused by the interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere, by the magnetosphere itself, by the interactions between the magnetosphere and ionosphere, and by the ionosphere itself.

The planetary 3-hour range index Kp is the mean K-index from 13 geomagnetic observatories.  The scale is 0 to 9 expressed in thirds of a unit, 5-  is 4 2/3, 5 is 5 and 5+ is 5 1/3.  This planetary index is designed to measure particle radiation by its magnetic effects.  The 3-hourly ap (equivalent range) index is derive from the Kp index as follows:

Kp = 0o   0+   1-   1o   1+   2-   2o   2+   3-   3o   3+   4-   4o   4+

ap =  0     2     3      4     5     6     7       9    12   15    18     22   27   32

Kp = 5-    5o    5+   6-   6o    6+    7-     7o     7+     8-     8o     8+    9-     9o

ap = 39   48   56    67   80   94   111  132    154   179   207  236  300  400

Now one more derivation to get to the Ap index.   The  Ap index is defined as the earliest occurring maximum 24-hour value  obtained by computing an 8-point running average of successive 3-hour ap indices during a geomagnetic storm event.


September Solar Cycle 24 Activity Increased

September Sunspot and Flux (F 10.7) data indicate a step change in Cycle 24 activity.  It was enough to cause Dr Hathaway to revise his Sunspot prediction chart once again.  He raised all three ranges, high, mid and low upward.  The mid-range was bumped up about 15%. (Click on Charts for better view.)   The Sunspot chart from NOAA/SWPC shown below indicates a monthly value increase from about 50 to 80 sunspots.  This chart suggests that the actual data is on track to match their prediction. And the Solar Radio             flux is tracking the NOAA/SWPC prediction. The Sun has a mind (or some kind of mechanism) of its own. To date in October   the Planetary A index is low and this usually means a less active Sun.  Will the numbers for Sunspots and Solar Radio Flux for the month of October drop?   Put in a planetary a index.   cbdakota