I received this email today. It is important.
The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consulate at Bergen Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone.
Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced bymoraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.
Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coast cities uninhabitable.
I must apologize. I neglected to mention that this report was from November 2, 1922 , as reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post 93 years ago. This must have been caused by the Model T Ford’s emissions or possibly from horse and cattle farts. Or, quite possibly, Al Gore’s grandfather.
Things have been very busy here at home. That is my excuse for writing so little recently. I am working on some thoughts why the global temperature is likely to begin to cool—a case of natural forces. But in the mean time, the warmers have allowed Bill Nye and Al Gore (and on occasion, Di Caprio) to be the face of their catastrophic religion. The real warmer scientists have tried the debate arena and have consistently underperformed. So better to leave it to their apostles, Nye and Gore.
If you haven’t seen” Bill Nye Saves the World” on Netflix, please do. If he and his minions don’t turn you off, you must be a warmer. The ratings are generally dismal. The Google Users rated it 29%.
See this You tube video that reviews what Nye’s show.
Algore has a new movie, an update of his “An Inconvient Truth”. I have seen the Promos version of this movie and it will probably be as full of errors and exaggerations as was his original one. The first one was the one that James Hansen (god-father of the current US catastrophic warming theory) said—well, ya, there are a lot of mistakes in it but its message is good. That is the kind of science that the warmers (consensus method) use along with coercion.
The numbers of scientist predicting a drop in global temperature are becoming a large group— ready to challenge the mythical 97%. This blog has posted some of the predictions. The postings have demonstrated that there is not total unanimity as to reason why the temperature will drop. Maybe it is a combination of different things. That is refreshing in light of the warmer’s one size fits all theory that CO2 is essentially raising or will raise global temperature all by itself.
First some discussion that suggests that CO2 is not what the warmers claim.
The warmer’s theory says that atmospheric CO2 molecules intercept low-frequency IR waves radiated from Earth on their way back into space. The exchange warms the atmosphere a little and this causes water to evaporate and move into the atmosphere. Water vapor is a much more significant “greenhouse gas” than CO2. They say that the result is a 3 fold increase in temperature as a result. This is their so-called “climate sensitivity”. This is part of the GIGO that is put into the climate models that the warmers use to predict catastrophic in the future. Let us look and see how well this has turned out for them in the real world versus the computer world.
The chart above was made in June 2013 so it is a little out of date. Next chart will be the latest update.
The important things to know are the following
- All those little hair-like lines represent the output from one of the 73 warmer computers. They are all over the place.
- The heavy black line aggregates all of the 73 outputs into a single line which represents the “official forecast”.
- The blue squares are the actual recorded global temperatures as measured by satellites.
- The actual temperature as measured by the weather balloons are shown as black dots.
- The balloons and the satellites essentially confirm each other and they are, again, actual measurements.
- Every 4 or 5 years, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gathers and produces an analysis of the state of the climate. They then issue a technical report and a summary that is primarily for the politicians of the world. One of the features of the IPCC report is how confident they are that their predictions are spot on.
- The red arrows show their level of confidence, at the time of the report, as to how sure they are that the forecasts are correct.
- The first report said that they were “confident”. As each new report was issued, they got more confident of their forecasts. The last one being 95% certain. This is all happening as the spread between their forecast temperature readings and the actual temperature readings continued to diverge.
Posted in AGW, Antartica, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, ClimateGate, CO2, CO2 positive feedback, ENSO, glaciers, Global Temperatures, Ice cores, Ice Melt, IPCC, NOAA, Sea Level, The Pause, US Temperatures
The polar bear became the symbol of the catastrophic effect of “global warming” in 2005. “Photo shopped” scenes of bears starving and floating away on an ice floe were ubiquitous. It was said the bears were on the brink of extinction.
But the warmers were wrong. Though the Arctic Sea Ice coverage has diminished over the recent years, it has not meant the demise of the polar bears. The polar bear population has increased by 33% since 2005. The YouTube video explains why the warmers were wrong.
Several years ago, a very prominent polar bear spotter and scientist, recognized that the polar bear numbers were growing, was disinvited to a UN sponsored meeting to discuss this topic. They did not want any facts get in their way, so the narrative of the bears nearing extinction was unabated. Now most of the authorities agree that the bears are not on the verge of extinction.
Russian ice breakers escorted cargo ships from Archangel to Pervek on an Arctic Ocean trip beginning on 14 December 2016 and arriving on 7 January 2017. It was thought that the temperature and the condition of the ice were such that they could make the return trip. But they did not get far before they were stopped by very thick ice. They had aerial surveys made of the of the route back to Archangel and concluded that it would not be passable for the cargo ships. The map of the area of the Arctic Ocean were the ship traveled is shown below:
Map courtesy of The Siberian Times.
From The Siberian Times comes this quote:
“But now a spokesman for Rosmorport has announced the icebreakers will delay a return until probably May or early June. ‘The vessels will remain for the winter because of the very heavy severe ice conditions,’ he said.
All the vessel got out of the ice, and three of them – Captain Dranitsyn and the two cargo ships – returned to Pevek. The Admiral Makarov moved further east to continue working for Rosmorport in clearing sea routes.
Officials said the icebreakers could have gone further through the ice but there was ‘a very high risk of significant damage’ to the supply ships, and it was decided to postpone the return to Archangelsk.”
I guess the North-West Passage is still not open for business. Hard to believe because that famous guru, Al Gore said the Arctic Ocean would be ice free by 2010. And isn’t he the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for such prized predictions as that one.
As an aside, I often forget how small the distance between Russia and the United States (State of Alaska) is. During the last glacial era, that point is said to be the “land bridge” that began the population of North America.
Rebloging from WattsUpWithThat “4 Key Charts for the Climate Change Skeptic”.
I could have used these charts to illustrate my reply to a commenter who said that I must not believe in climate change.
From my blog:
I don’t know any skeptic that does not believe in climate change. Every 100,000 years or so, the Earth experiences roughly 80,000 years of a very cold climate and about 20,000 years of warm climate called the interglacial period. As you can tell the geological scientists mean that the warm period is squeezed in between glacial periods. This cycle has been going on for about a million years. The question is not, does the climate change, but rather what causes it to do so. Surely you don’t think that this natural cycle has been caused by man burning fossil fuels.
Most skeptics believe the primary cause of the change is natural and most think that man’s activities may play a minor role in the recent climate change. What we believe in is actual measurable data. What we don’t believe in is climate models that have proved time and time again to fail to be even close to actual measurements. For eighteen years or so, there was no statistically significant rise in global temperatures. You may think that the recent temperature spike due to a natural event, El Nino, has caused the “pause” to be broken. I ask you to look at the predicted temperatures versus the current temperature and you will still see that it is way below what is predicted by the computer models. And here is a kicker, the atmospheric CO2 levels used in these selected mean computer temperature predictions are typically lower than the actual measured CO2 level. Wow. That should make the spread between actual and computer predicted temperatures even bigger.
No, I don’t want dirty water or air. You propose so many strawmen that you could populate a remake of the Wizard of Oz. I support the Clean Water and Clean Air Acts. Have done so as an engineer and manager of design and installation of environmental facilities throughout my industrial career. But how is it that one could support regulations that are predicated on SECRET SCIENCE? The EPA is out of control. Congress makes the laws. The EPA cannot be allowed to do that.
cbdakota (two minor grammatical corrections from the original reply.)
The WUWT is below:
Watts Up With That?
Skeptics often get asked to show why they thinks climate change isn’t a crisis, and why we should not be alarmed about it. These four graphs from Michael David White are handy to use for such a purpose.
By Michael David White
View original post
The previous posting showed that the temperatures in the past have exceeded the current temperature rise giving lie to the assertion that the year 2015 was the hottest year ever.
A cursory examination indicates that the warmers do not dispute the temperature records derived from the ice cores. But looking at the relationship of carbon dioxide (CO2) and temperature rise and fall as indicated by the ice core record, some warmers do not agree with the idea that CO2 follows temperature rise and fall rather than leads. First a look at graphical representations of the ice core data:
To understand this chart, remember, time flow to the right from the past to the present. When examining the blue, temperature, and the red, CO2, the line to the right is later. For example, look at the blue and the red line beginning about 140,000 years ago. The red line is very close to the blue line but it is to the right of the blue line meaning that it is lagging the rise in temperature shown by the blue line. The difference is more apparent if you click on the chart to enlarge it. Note that the thickness of a line on this chart may be the equivalent of 1,000years. The creators of this chart meant to show the CO2 lagging the temperature because that is what their data told them.