Sales of electric vehicles (EV) jumped in the second quarter of this year. This was enough to convince Real Clear Energy to post “Surge in EV Sales Bucks Cheap Gasoline, Broader Auto Industry Trends”. The posting says that while President Obama’s goal of 1 million EV’s on US roads by 2015 was not met, it was only about half that number in 2015, the surge “gives reason for fresh optimism about the future…..” EV Sales in the first half of 2015 were 70,296 versus 2016 first half sales of 99,634—a 42% change. That looks pretty impressive in the abstract.
However, EV sales need to be evaluated versus all US automobile sales
Detailed Data for sales in August are readily available but June 2016 detailed data are behind a pay wall. In reality the exact numbers are not significantly going to change the fact that EV sales were about 1..2% of total sales. YCharts forecast annual sales based upon auto sales by using the current month’s actual sales. In June , half of the year, the Y chart number for total sales was 17.09 million automobiles. This number counts cars and light truck and it includes EV sales in this number. The 2016 auto sales for the year based upon August July sales was18.15 million. Because the biggest sales months are in the fall of the year, the official forecast for 2016 sales is 18.75 million.
Anyway, if the annual forecast at the end of June was 17.09 roughly the year to date sales for the first six months sales would have been about 8.5 million.
The math: 0.1 million EVsales /8.5 million total sales = 1.2% of the total sales were EVs.
Real Clear Energy really has to be reaching to say that this gives them “fresh optimism.”
A hat tip to David Middleton for this story line based upon his posting in WUWT titled “Green math must be a Common Core product“. I have modified it because I believe his calculation was erroneous. He arrived at number of 0.6% rather than what I believe is the correct number. Middleton’s conclusion however is unchanged by my calculation of 1.2%.
California, always trying to be an environmental leader, has recently enacted SB 350 which will require that, by 2030, electrical utilities must get 50% of their power from renewable resources. The bill also requires greenhouse gases emissions (GHGE) be reduced by 40% by 2030 and 80% by 2050 versus the 1990 GHGE baseline. Dropped from the bill were measures to compel a 50% reduction in petroleum use by 2030.
These reductions are more stringent than those that failed to get accepted by the nations of the World at the COP21 meeting in Paris. California against the world. Further, even if these SB350 mandated changes are met, they will be too small to even be measureable. That is the definition of futility.
I attended the “Tenth International Conference on Climate Change” held in Washington, DC on June 11-12, 2015. It surpassed my expectations. The panel presentations were uniformly excellent. While I consider myself to be reasonably well informed regarding this topic, I realized that are certain important areas of which I knew little. For example I learned many things about the way the EPA operates that makes me very angry. Several of the current Republican candidates for President have announced that if they are elected they plan to shut down the EPA and let the State’s environmental groups handle these issues. I plan a future posting about this topic.
Mainly the Conference covered global warming science. However there were some tributes to contributors who have made an impact. One interesting presentation was Christopher Monckton’s defense of Dr Willie Soon.
The entire conference is on video. It can be seen by clicking on this link
Posted in AGW, Alternative Energy, carbon tax, Climate Alarmism, Climate Models, ClimateGate, CO2, Coal, Electric Vehicles, Electricity from Coal, Energy Development, EPA, fossil fuels, Fracking/Shale Gas, Global Temperatures, Government Regulations, IPCC, Nuclear Energy, Sea Level
These are troubling times for the electric vehicle (EV) and the hybrid (EHV) sales. The first 3 months of 2015 experienced lower sales than in the year 2011 which was the first full year of sales for the Chevy Volt (EVH) and the Nissan Leaf (EV). Even though the buyer of a new EV or new EVH is still geting a $7500 tax credit, manufacturers are having to cut prices because the dealer’s inventories are building up. The low price of gasoline and the questions about electric vehicles durability are major reasons for this situation. But there is another reason that is playing a big part in this problem. A posting on Detroitnews.com titled “Electric vehicles lose buzz” talks about the issue of leasing:
“Edmunds.com reports that leases comprised nearly seven of every 10 plug-in cars that drove off dealer lots from January through March.
Wired has a posting titled “A Two-Day Battle to Charge My Car Convinced Me We’re Not Ready for EVs” by Alex Davies. Davies relates that he borrowed a Nisan Leaf for a test run. He planed to make a trip from San Francisco to Mountain Valley, California for a meeting. The distance from his apartment to the meeting is 35 miles. The mileage available meter on the Leaf indicates its range at the current charge was 50 miles. The trip to the meeting was uneventful. The problems begin when he knows that the battery charge is not sufficient to get him back to his apartment. What follows was several hours getting the Leaf charged.
Henry Lee of the Harvard Kennedy School reports the Chinese government cannot make their people buy electric cars. The American “Green” press insists that China is the leader in green technology and that they want to join in a pact to reduce CO2 emissions. Well if you watch what the Chinese do rather than what they say, you would know they have no intention of cutting back on the use of fossil fuels.
Posted in Alternative Energy, Batteries, China, CO2, Coal, Electric Vehicles, Electricity from Coal, Environment, fossil fuels, Personal Automobiles, US Auto Manufacturers
The President in his weekly address did it again. He said things that are demonstrably untrue and in other cases terribly misleading. This comes after the debacle resulting from his lying when he made assurances about keeping your medical policy under Obamacare, period!!!! Why is he doing it again? Because he knows, with the compliance of the Main Stream Media (MSM), he can mislead the low information voters. And he is happy to be doing that. See the video of the address by clicking here.
He takes credit for the increase in oil production in the US. He has had nothing to do with it. And he knows that. The oil boom comes from private landowners operating on non-federal land.(See chart below.) He cannot prevent exploitation of those reserves.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration based on DrillingInfo and LCI Energy Insight
Posted in AGW, CAFE Standards, cap and trade, carbon tax, Domestic Energy, Electric Vehicles, Electricity, EPA, Fracking/Shale Gas, Government Regulations, Media Bias, solar cells, Windpower
This might be the right time to begin separating monthly sales of plug-in hybrids vehicles from battery vehicles. So here goes.
Plug-in hybrids (PHV) August Sales.
The August PHV sales were up by 83% over July’s sales. Volt led this category with 3,351 vehicle sales and a 52% share of this market. Volt year-to-date sales were 14, 994. The Prius PHV sales were 1,791 and with year-to-date sales of 6,822. Others making a showing were Ford C-Max with sales of 621 and Ford Fusion Energi with 600.
(Click on chart for clarity)
The chart does show some reasonably good upward movement for PHEV sales. But not to get too excited just yet, Green Car Congress posts that: “With overall light-duty vehicles sales of 1,503,151 units in August (up 17% year-on-year), according to AutoData, plug-in hybrids had a 0.4% share of the August new vehicle market.”
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) August Sales
The Nissan LEAF August sales were 2,420 with year-to-date sales at 14,123.
Tesla is the elephant in the room. The next report on sales will be at the end of the third quarter so it is a guess where they rank in the scheme of things. Green Car Congress reports sales of Leafs plus a number of other models with sales in the 200 or below would add to August BEV sales of 3,206. They estimate that upward of 1700 Teslas were probably sold in August increasing the total BEV August sales to about 4,900 units. BEV sales would be about 0.3% of the August new vehicle sales.
Still far from impressive.
A previous posting, “Fuel Cell Vehicles”, reviewed the basics of the fuel cell and the fuel cell vehicles. At the end of that posting, it was said that: “There are a lot of things going for H2 powered fuel cell vehicles except the economics.”
What does that mean? There are two factors that make H2 non-competitive versus other alternatives. Factor one is that hydrogen (H2) is very costly to produce, and distribute. The second are the physical characteristics of H2 that increase the cost of distribution and use.
Like the tide, going in and out and so does the Fuel Cell Vehicle favorability. Right now favorability is pretty well in the tank, but not completely. The city of London is installing hydrogen (H2) fueling stations with the objective of encouraging their use. California has a similar program, as does Germany.
Some of you may not be familiar with fuel cell cars because they have been out of the spotlight recently. The following is an overview of the fuel cell and the fuel cell car. The cartoon below pictures most of the hardware needed.
Courtesy of http://www.imageproduction.nl