Category Archives: Ap index

Solar Cycle 24 Activity Continues To Decline


The April 2015 Solar Cycle 24 Sunspot number rose somewhat in April, but the forecast is for a continued decline in activity.   The 2015 monthly Sunspot counts were: January = 67.0, February=44.8, March=38.4 and April=54.4.   The daily Sunspot counts seesawed, but definitely with a downward trend, Ri(black).  This can be seen be examining Rsouth (green). While Rnorth has been reasonably quiet for a year or so, Rsouth has been the major contributor to the total number since late 2013.

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Early look at Solar Cycle 24 July Activity


Since late last year, Solar Cycle 24 has picked up activity as it goes through a double peak maximum.   I doubt that is an official term but it does describe what has been going on. It was generally though that the peak International Smoothed Sunspot number for Cycle 24 was going to be about 66.   But the recent activity will result in a smoothed peak number of 81 or there about.  (Click on charts for clarity.)

solensolarterrestialjuly26-14

This chart of approximately the last 12 months, shows that F-10.7cm solar flux and Sunspot numbers are closely aligned, both being good proxies for solar activity.

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Solar Cycle 24 October Update


The 30 day smoothed International Sunspot number for October 2013 was 78.9.  The Sun was more active as indicated by Sunspots and F10.7cm radio flux in October than any time since the middle of July this year.  The chart, by Solen, below shows this activity. (Click on chart to enlarge.)

sunspotoct13solar

The chart shows that the NOAA Sunspot number and the F10.7 cm flux are trending downward at month-end, indicating the likelihood that the 30-day smoothed Sunspot number will begin dropping.  A bit of prospective is that while the October solar activity was up, Cycle 24 is still much having much lower activity relative to the 3 preceding Solar Cycles.

cbdakota

Solar Cycle 24 October Sunspot Number Rising


It was beginning to look like the Sunspots were in freefall based on last month’s 30 day smoothed number of 36.9.  But the Sun continues to let us know that we don’t know a lot about it for certain.   It looks like the Cycle 24 Sunspot number may reach 70 for the month of October.  A jump in Sunspot activity began in second week of this month and has continued through the third week.  It will be interesting to see how high it will go.  This number is not the official smoothed 6 month lagging number* that will not move up a lot, unless this higher activity continues for several months.  See the Chart below that shows, in Green, the smoothed 30 day number at the last updating on 25 October 2013.   It is nearly 70 at this time. (Click on chart to enlarge.)

sunspotdatamidoct13

This chart is from http://www.solen.info/solar/.  This is an excellent site for monitoring solar data.

*The smoothed number is calculated by doing a 13 month average from the numbers that lag 6 months behind the current month.

cbdakota

Penn And Livingston Cycle 25 Sunspot Forecast


Penn and Livingston, in their September 2010 IAU publication “Long-Term Evolution Of Sunspot Magnetic Fields” predicted that Solar Cycle 24 would peak at an International Sunspot number of 66 and Solar Cycle 25 at 7!!

Sunspotdiagram

Considering that NASA believes that the peak for Cycle 24 will be 67, their prediction looks pretty good.   So would you bet against their Cycle 25 prediction of 7?

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IPCC Errs When Concluding The Sun Is Not A Major Factor In Global Temperatures


While the IPCC doesn’t have an answer for why there has been no statistical increase in global temperatures for going on 17 years,  they don’t think the Sun has been a significant factor.  They  generalize that  volcanoes, deep ocean warming,  and particulate matter in the atmosphere may be the cause.

Duncan Q&A : on change of climate change : Earth and Sun

Copy of Woodcutting by TheGuardian.com by Duncan Clark

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Solar Cycle 24 September 13 Update


The International Sunspot number for September dropped to 37 from 66 in August.    The F10.7cm solar flux moved downward as well from 115 in August to 103 in September.   Both are measures of Solar activity.  Again, Solar Cycle 24 is decidedly less active than recent Solar Cycles. (Click on the charts to improve clarity.  All charts are  by “Solar Terrestrial Activity Report”).

ssncycle24=0ct13

This chart, from Solen etc, is interesting.  The black line labled Ri is the International Sunspot number. The Rnorth indicates the number of Sunspots that were counted in the Sun’s northern hemisphere and Rsouth those formed in the southern hemisphere. Rnorth plus Rsouth equal Ri.  Rnorth peaked in late 2011 at about 97 Sunspots.  Rsouth peaked at about 50  in the middle of  last year.  The smoothed number is the official count.  The smoothed number is calculated by doing a 13 month average from the numbers that lag 6 months behind the current month.  The maximum smoothed number for Cycle 24 so far is 66.9 which occurred in early 2012.  Most of the solar cycle experts believe that will be the maximum for Cycle 24.

Below is the solar polar field strength chart updated for September showing the south and north poles have both crossed the  Sun’s equator.  It is suggested that you read the discussion regarding solar polar fields by clicking on this Forecasting Solar Cycle 25 Using The Solar Polar Field Strength”.

solarpolarfields-oct13

This chart puts Cycle 24 in perspective with Cycle 23.

ssncycles23_24-oct13

The projected Sunspot number, shown in green, is also a 13 month average but it has no six month delay built into the calculation.

cbdakota