There are two recent papers indicating that global cooling will begin soon. Both studies believe that more cosmic rays in the Earth’s atmosphere will be responsible for reduced global temperatures. The cosmic rays produce lower level clouds which reduce temperatures by reflecting incoming solar radiation back into space.
“Cosmic Rays, Solar Activity, and Changes in the Earth’ Climate is by a group of Russian scientists led by Y.I. Stozhkov. The Paper considers Milankovich theory on global temperatures but dismiss it for this study saying that “…… (Milankovitch) changes happen on a long -term scales and are unlikely to be related to the contemporary process of global warming.” The three orbital factors in this theory are:
- the Earth’s orbital eccentricity which changes or 100,000 to 400,000 years
- the tilt angle of the Earth’s rotational axis which has about a 41,000-year cycle
- the precession angle changes with periods of 19,000 to 26,000 years
They considered solar luminosity but feel that the changes in total solar irradiation (TSI) are too small to alter average global temperature by no more than 0.05C.
The study also looked at the cosmic rays. The team compiled monthly Δ T* data for the period from 1880 to early 2016. Using that data, they made a spectral analysis for the same period. The result is shown on the chart below: (*Δ T often called the “temperature anomaly”.)
The team looked at cosmic rays versus Δ T and found a relationship. Cloud formation is a function of cosmic ray presence in the Earth’s atmosphere. That is illustrated from the team’s chart shown below:
The team interestingly does not attribute cosmic ray intensity in the Earth’s atmosphere to solar activity. The study reports:
“Another influence on the Earth’s climate is solar activity; the main period of its variations is ≅11 years. Despite numerous attempts to find a connection between different solar activity indices and temporal variations in delta T values, no such link has been firmly established.”
Their contribution is —-an increase in cosmic rays in the Earth’s atmosphere will lower global temperature. Thus, leaving the reason the cosmic rays increase or decrease as an unknown. Their Figure 1 seems to suggest they see a drop in global temperature beginning soon and lasting until at least 2060.
The second study will be posted next.