Water vapor is acknowledged to be the primary “greenhouse gas”. In the warmer’s theory, any increase of global temperature due to atmospheric CO2, results in a corresponding increase of water vapor. The impact on temperature is a tripling of that which would occur from CO2 alone. This feedback loop is called Climate Sensitivity.
Actual temperature records show that this is not happening. There has been only a slight rise in global temperatures over the past 20 years and that rise may have been from natural causes rather than CO2. See this argument in this posting. The most recent IPCC global warming report was ambiguous on this issue, apparently recognizing that their long held standard 3X increase was in trouble. Studies by many groups have demonstrated the multiplier is not 3X and at least 2X at best. See the following chart:
From Wiki, an expanded definition of ECS and TCR:
The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) refers to the equilibrium change in global mean near-surface air temperature that would result from a sustained doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The transient climate response (TCR) is defined as the average temperature response over a twenty-year period centered at CO2 doubling in a transient simulation with CO2 increasing at 1% per year. The transient response is lower than the equilibrium sensitivity, due to the “inertia” of ocean heat uptake.
CERN CLOUD Study Confirms 3X Is Too High
A new CERN study is saying that the warmers “climate sensitivity” calculation needs to be reduced. This study, CLOUD, was undertaken to determine if cosmic Rays were actually causing an increase in clouds as claimed by Henrik Svensmark. Svensmark postulated that the extremely high energy “rays” would impact gas molecules and shatter them. The small particles that were formed from the collisions would then seed cloud formation** Svensmark noted that cosmic rays entering the Earth’s atmosphere were much greater when the Sun was less active. The increased cloud cover would increase the Earth’ albedo and reflect incoming radiation from the Sun back into space and thus cause global temperature cooling. This theory pays tribute to the idea that when there are long periods of fewer Sunspots (a proxy for low Solar magnetic activity), the global temperatures tend to drop. The Sun’s magnetic activity regulates the amount of cosmic rays that are able to enter Earth’s atmosphere. When activity is low, more cosmic rays enter and more clouds are formed.
The initial Cloud study conclusions were that some clouds were seeded but not enough to have an impact on global temperatures. However, recent testing using aerosols that matched their concentration in the atmosphere provided different results. From a posting on the ICECAP site by Dennis Avery we get this:
“CERN’s Jasper Kirkby says that cosmic rays increase the number of cloud seeds by one to two orders of magnitude. In addition, the ionized clouds reflect more solar heat back into space – and they’re longer-lasting. The cloud variations thus amplify the sun’s variability! The clouds, in effect are the earth’s thermostats – and the IPCC has admitted it can’t model them!
CLOUD used a particle accelerator and a super-clean cloud chamber to carry Svensmark’s experiment to the next level. CLOUD found that the computers had underestimated the cloudiness of the Little Ice Age, because they completely failed to understand the dramatic impact of the ionized cloud seed particles created by cosmic rays! The ionization attracts other molecules in the atmosphere, so the cloud seeds grow instead of evaporating,”
We know that water vapor is the major greenhouse gas, but think about what Japer Kirkby says. Water Vapor in the form of clouds has the opposite effect and acts as the earth’s thermostat.
Here is a SWAG—Climate Sensitivity is about 1.0 +/- 0.5
More information about the CLOUD PROGRAM findings at CERN can be found by using this link. Click on December 2016 and go to page 4. Read “Cloud experiments sharpens climate predictions.”
**Some information about clouds that you might not be aware of, is that clouds must have seeds(condensation nuclei) in order to form. From Reference.com comes this:
Cloud formation involves a series of processes that cause water droplets or ice crystals in the atmosphere to form into clouds. Cooling of air is a part of these processes. Warm air is capable of holding more water vapor than cool air, which means that extra water vapor starts to condense into liquid water droplets when air starts to cool.
Water vapor typically needs a condensation nuclei, such as dust and pollen. Eventually, water vapor condenses upon these condensation nuclei to form a cloud. The droplets that comprise a cloud are extremely tiny, and they are light enough to float in the air. When the cloud becomes too heavy, water droplets fall down to the ground in the form of precipitation such as rain, snow, sleet and hail.
Smithsonian.com says “A giant thunderhead may contain more than two billion pounds of water.”