“I no longer consider it remotely possible to accept the null hypothesis that the climate record has not been tampered with to increase the warming of the present and cooling of the past and thereby exaggerate warming into a deliberate better fit with the theory instead of letting the data speak for itself and hence be of some use to check the theory.”
Those words are by Dr Robert J Brown of Duke University in a WUWT posting titled “Is There Evidence of Frantic Researchers “Adjusting” Unsuitable Data? (Now Includes July Data)”.
In late May or early June, USHCN announced that the “Pause” was broken as they had found that the sea surface temperatures (sst) were being underreported. They said temperature measuring buoys that they placed in the ocean needed correction and they added 0.12C to those measurements. Never mind that these buoys were equipped with the best temperature measuring devices. But alas they were not giving the answer they needed. So they used ocean going vessels’ water intake measuring devices to correct the buoys. See “NOAA Alleges New Temperature Data Refutes The “Pause But Does It?
This is what causes Dr Brown to say:
“This correction, right before the November meeting, right when The Pause was becoming a major political embarrassment, was the straw that broke the p-value’s back”.
When he mentions the “November meeting” he is referring to the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP21 held in Paris, from November 30 to December 11. The conference objective is to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, from all the nations of the world.
Pay attention here where Dr Brown questions why “errors” are always end up increasing temperature rather that lowering it.
“ ….. they are errors introduced by changing the kind of thermometric sensors used, errors introduced by moving observation sites around, errors introduced by changes in the time of day observations are made, and so on. In general one would expect measurement errors in any given thermometric time series, especially when they are from highly diverse causes, to be as likely to cool the past relative to the present as warm it, but somehow, that never happens. Indeed, one would usually expect them to be random, unbiased over all causes, and hence best ignored in statistical analysis of the time series.
Note well that the total correction is huge. The range is almost the entire warming reported in the form of an anomaly from 1850 to the present.
Brown also discusses “confirmation bias” which he believes play a part in why the temperatures always go up. Systematically the temperatures in the thirties, a period of more States high temperatures records than in any other decade, are now being lowered and those in recent times are being adjusted upward.
The following chart shows how the 1999 version of US temperatures were revised in 2012 version. For source and other changes that have been made click here.
The above chart was prepared by Steve Goddard. This chart and other information about revisions can be see by clicking here.
In April of this year, the London-based think-tank the Global Warming Policy Foundation launched a major inquiry into the integrity of the official global surface temperature records. It is important that a skeptic group has undertaken this task.
The current El Nino is pretty powerful and will likely break the pause without the help of manipulated temperatures. But the La Nina, a sea surface cooling event will surely follow. And if decreasing solar activity continues on the path begun in earnest by Solar Cycle 24 when Solar Cycle 25 occurs, the global temperatures are likely to fall, and the pause will be forgotten except that it was the transition from rising temperatures to cooling of the Earth’s temperatures.