Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) predictions based upon the output of their climate models have a poor record for accuracy. Examples of zombies would be those that say Arctic sea ice will melt away completely by such and such date. The date came, it didn’t happen. But like a zombie, it comes back to life when another expert tells us the Arctic sea ice will melt away completely by some new date.
This posting will high light a few of the failed predictions.
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE
The climate computers are based upon the theory that increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are the driver for higher and higher temperatures. While the increasing levels of CO2 may have an effect on global temperatures, it appears to be only a minor factor. But the predicted sizeable increases in temperatures lead to predictions that all the Earth’s sea ice and glaciers will quickly melt, snowfalls will be greatly diminished or cease altogether thus not replenish the glaciers, people will have to flee the coast lines to prevent themselves from drowning, and species will be extinguished. So if the computers are wrong, then the whole theory of catastrophic man-made climate change is bogus.
The prediction that got the CAGW underway was James Hansen’s (the godfather of CAGW) infamous forecasts that can be seen below:(Click on chart to enlarge.)
Notable from this chart are three Hansen curves. The top one, scenario A was if CO2 were not cut back (business as usual) from its growth rate of 1.5% per year. The graph shows that Hansen’s forecast is already too high by about 0.7C over the actual measured temperatures denoted as 12/2014. Hansen’s forecast would have an even larger differential than 0.7C if it were recalculated using the current CO2 growth rate of 2.2% per year. Consider also, that the global temperature has shown no statistical increase in some 18 years—all the while the atmospheric CO2 has been climbing.
“Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind. We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation,” – Barry Commoner Washington University Earth Day 1970
‘New York will probably be like Florida 15 years from now,’ – St. Louis Post-Dispatch Sept. 17, 1989
“(By) 1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots… “(By 1996) The Platte River of Nebraska would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers… “The Mexican police will round up illegal American migrants surging into Mexico seeking work as field hands”. – Michael Oppenheimer, The Environmental Defense Fund – “Dead Heat” 1990
Giant sand dunes may turn Plains to desert – Huge sand dunes extending east from Colorado’s Front Range may be on the verge of breaking through the thin topsoil, transforming America’s rolling High Plains into a desert, new research suggests. The giant sand dunes discovered in NASA satellite photos are expected to re- emerge over the next 20 to 50 years, depending on how fast average temperatures rise from the suspected “greenhouse effect,” scientists believe. -Denver Post April 18, 1990
”I think we’re in trouble. When you realize how little time we have left – we are now given not 10 years to save the rainforests, but in many cases five years. Madagascar will largely be gone in five years unless something happens. And nothing is happening.” – ABC – The Miracle Planet April 22, 1990
The planet could face an “ecological and agricultural catastrophe” by the next decade if global warming trends continue – Carl Sagan – Buffalo News Oct. 15, 1990
By 2000, British and American oil will have diminished to a trickle……Ozone depletion and global warming threaten food shortages, but the wealthy North will enjoy a temporary reprieve by buying up the produce of the South. Unrest among the hungry and the ensuing political instability, will be contained by the North’s greater military might. A bleak future indeed, but an inevitable one unless we change the way we live…..At present rates of exploitation there may be no rainforest left in 10 years. If measures are not taken immediately, the greenhouse effect may be unstoppable in 12 to 15 years. – 5000 Days to Save the Planet – Edward Goldsmith 1991
Most of the great environmental struggles will be either won or lost in the 1990s and by the next century it will be too late. — Thomas E. Lovejoy, Smithsonian Institution “Real Goods Alternative Energy Sourcebook,” Seventh Edition: February 1993
“It appears that we have a very good case for suggesting that the El Ninos are going to become more frequent, and they’re going to become more intense and in a few years, or a decade or so, we’ll go into a permanent El Nino. So instead of having cool water periods for a year or two, we’ll have El Nino upon El Nino, and that will become the norm. And you’ll have an El Nino, that instead of lasting 18 months, lasts 18 years,” he said. – BBC November 7, 1997
One of the world’s leading climate experts warned of an underestimated threat posed by the buildup of greenhouse gases ‘ an abrupt collapse of the ocean’s prevailing circulation system that could send temperatures across Europe plummeting in a span of 10 years. If that system shut down today, winter temperatures in the North Atlantic region would fall by 20 or more degrees Fahrenheit within 10 years. Dublin would acquire the climate of Spitsbergen, 600 miles north of the Arctic Circle. “The consequences could be devastating,” said Wallace S. Broecker, Newberry Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University’s – Science Magazine Dec 1, 1997
Scientists are warning that some of the Himalayan glaciers could vanish within ten years because of global warming. A build-up of greenhouse gases is blamed for the meltdown, which could lead to drought and flooding in the region affecting millions of people. – The Birmingham Post (England) July 26, 1999
A report last week claimed that within a decade, the disease (Malaria) will be common again on the Spanish coast. The effects of global warming are coming home to roost in the developed world. – The Guardian September 11, 1999
“The more than ‘unusually ‘warm January weather is yet ‘another extreme event’, ‘a harbinger of the winters that are ahead of us’. … The global temperature will ‘increase every year by 0.2°C” Michael Müller, Socialist, State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Environment, Die Zeit, 15 Jan 2007
Climate change…is the fundamental threat to humankind…If we fail to act, climate change will intensify droughts, floods and other natural disasters. Water shortages will affect hundreds of millions of people. Malnutrition will engulf large parts of the developing world. Tensions will worsen. Social unrest—even violence—could follow. The damage to national economies will be enormous. The human suffering will be incalculable…We have just four months. Four months to secure the future of our planet.” —Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary General, prior to the 2009 climate conference in Copenhagen, UN News Centre, Aug. 11, 2009
These forecast of fleeing refugees have not happened.
Some predictions for the next decade (1990’s) are not difficult to make… Americans may see the ’80s migration to the Sun Belt reverse as a global warming trend rekindles interest in cooler climates. – Dallas Morning News December 5th 1989
Today (in 1996) 25 million environmental refugees roam the globe, more than those pushed out for political, economic, or religious reasons. By 2010, this number will grow tenfold to 200 million. – The Heat is On -The High Stakes Battle Over Earth’s Threatened Climate – Ross Gelbspan – 1996
Environmental refugees to top 50 million in 5 years –“There are well-founded fears that the number of people fleeing untenable environmental conditions may grow exponentially as the world experiences the effects of climate change and other phenomena,” says UNU-EHS Director Janos Bogardi. – United Nations University news release – October 11, 2005
“Fifty Million Climate Refugees by 2010″ —United Nations Environment Programme web site, 2005 (now erased from site )
Notable fact here is that the sea level according to the University of Colorado, is rising at rate of 3.2 mm per year. There are 25.4 mm in one inch. 85 years from now it will be the year 2100. At the current rate, the total rise in sea level will be 10.7 inches.
In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish. — Paul Ehrlich, Earth Day (1970)
A global warming trend could bring heat waves, dust-dry farmland and disease, the experts said… Under this scenario, the resort town of Ocean City, Md., will lose 39 feet of shoreline by 2000 and a total of 85 feet within the next 25 years – San Jose Mercury News – June 11, 1986
U.N. OFFICIAL PREDICTS DISASTER SAYS GREENHOUSE EFFECT COULD WIPE SOME NATIONS OFF MAP – entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of “eco-refugees,” threatening political chaos, said Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program. He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect – Associated Press June 30, 1989
In ten years time, most of the low-lying atolls surrounding Tuvalu’s nine islands in the South Pacific Ocean will be submerged under water as global warming rises sea levels, CNN Mar 29, 2001
MELTING ICE (Zobimes reside her.)
Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000. – Los Angles Times – May 16, 1972
“According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic
Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015″. “And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,” Professor Louis Fortier – Université Laval, Director ArcticNet – November 16, 2007
NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions. – National Geographic Dec. 12, 2007
Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice. Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss. “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC. “So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.” Professor Maslowski’s group, which includes co-workers at Nasa and the Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences (PAS), is well known for producing models that are in advance of other teams. – BBC Dec. 12, 2007
“We’re seeing the reality of a lot of the North Pole starting to evaporate, and we could get to a tipping point. Because if it evaporates to a certain point – they have lanes now where ships can go that couldn’t ever sail through before. And if it gets to a point where it evaporates too much, there’s a lot of tundra that’s being held down by that ice cap… -Rep.(D) Henry Waxman, chair of House Energy and Commerce Committee, April 2009
Arctic warming has become so dramatic that the North Pole may melt this summer (2008), report scientists studying the effects of climate change in the field. “We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker. – National Geographic News June 20, 2008
“There is a possibility of an ice-free Arctic Ocean for a short period in summer perhaps as early as 2015. This would mean the disappearance of multi-year ice, as no sea ice would survive the summer melt season….Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Report – 2009
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,” he said, pulling out a battered laptop to show a diagram explaining his calculations, which he calls “the Arctic death spiral”. – David Vaughan Glaciologist & IPCC scientist – Financial Times Magazine Aug 8, 2012
Granted, when making projections, it’s good to have sophisticated models. I don’t claim to have used those, but I’ve got a good eye and by the looks of it, sea ice will be gone in September 2014. -Sam Carana Arctic News Sep 21, 2012
For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean….” – Paul Beckwith Sierra Club – March 23, 2013
NO MORE SNOW
This year’s snow is weather. But so were these no snow forecasts that follow. The forecast below were hitching the weather to climate change predictions.
“But it does not take a scientist to size up the effects of snowless winters on the children too young to remember the record-setting blizzards of 1996. For them, the pleasures of sledding and snowball fights are as out-of-date as hoop-rolling, and the delight of a snow day off from school is unknown.” – Dr. Michael Oppenheimer of the Environmental Defense Fund New York Times – January 2000
Britain’s winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives. Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain’s culture, as warmer winters – which scientists are attributing to global climate change – produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries. – Charles Onians -UK Independent Mar 20, 2000
Within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting even. Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” Dr David Viner, Senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia – Mar 20, 2000
Good bye winter. Never again snow?” Spiegel, 1 April 2000
The UN’s Climate Change Conference will be held in Paris, France for a two-week period beginning on 30 November 2015. The conference objective is to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, from all the nations of the world. The Obama Administration wants to sign the U.S. up to reducing fossil fuel use and committing to provide billions of dollars to other nations as reparations for our being successful. He knows he will never get this passed in Congress where the Constitution requires a 2/3 majority of Senators approving any pact with foreign nations. So his administration in working on schemes to by-pass Congress. Using his pen to legislate again.
Expect a big flood of catastrophic prediction to show up soon in the media in advance of the Paris Summit. Read them and forget them.
The following links provided the majority of the quotes in this posting,