Cycle 24-November ’14—Sunspot Number Trend


Cycle 24 solar activity looked liked it had peaked somewhere around March of 2011 at about 68. But it hadn’t.   The smoothed International Sunspot (SS) number is currently around 82 around as shown by the dashed blue line on this chart:

cycle24-2More detail can be seen on the following chart where the activity in November is up from October. Both SS and solar flux (F10.7 cm) peaked at about 170 in November.

sssolarterestialnov2014

Solar Cycle 24 is still much less active than Solar Cycle 23 as can be seen in the chart below:

sunspotscycles23_24 nov14

The green line is the predicted path of the smoothed International SS number.  This time the turn down in solar activity  may actually be the “maximum” for Solar Cycle 24.

An El Nino is happening now. It should continue into next year. Early indications were that it would be very weak, but it has picked up some strength. This event is likely to have an effect and may even break the run of more than 18-year pause in global temperatures. Solar Cycle 24’s low solar activity might offset the El Nino with the “pause’ continuing. Nobody knows.

Probably the most comprehensive discussions of the what and where-fore of an El Nino are by Bob Tisdale postings. Clicking here will direct you to his postings.

cbdakota

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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