Dr David Evans has proposed a new theory that he believes demonstrates the link between the Sun’s total solar irradiance (TSI) and the Earth’s climate. The idea that TSI and the Earth’s Climate are linked is not a new or novel theory. Evan’s has built a computer program that provides a time delay between a change in TSI and the time that climate begins to respond. He believes the key to his program is the use of “notch filter” similar to those used in the communications industry to filter out “noise”.
He also is asking for peer review of this program via “crowd sourcing”. Reading the comment sections of the sites where he has posted his theory and provided much of the coding, he certainly has been successful in getting comments. At the time of my last survey, the comments he has received are mostly positive but some others are skeptical.
For this study, Evans derived a new transform that he calls the “optimal Fourier transform (OFT)” for this paper. This transform provides the “notch”. One commenter suggested that the use of another type of Fourier transform would improve Evan’s program and appears that Evans agrees. (I did take a course in Laplace Transforms, but not being an Electrical Engineer, I have forgotten what I learned. This comment is a way of letting the reader know that I am unable to intelligently comment on the math used in Evans’ program. )
WHY IT’S GOING TO COOL
“The reason for the cooling is the dramatic fall in solar radiation that started around 2004. Here is a graph of solar radiation since 1610, when sunspots were first recorded. The brown line is the solar radiation, and it peaks every 11 years or so because of the sunspot cycle. We put an 11-year smoother through it to give us the red line, which shows the trends in solar radiation.” (Click on charts for improved clarity.)
Evans says there have been three steep falls in TSI in the last 400 years and each of these falls have been accompanied by major global cooling.
That the global temperature has fallen in sync with the drop off of TSI appears to be an awfully good correlation. But many skeptics as well as warmers argue that it must have been for some other reason other than TSI because (look at the vertical axis) the total change in TSI is too little to be of consequence.
This blog has always proposed that the Sun is the major forcing agent in global climate. Perhaps the causation is not the TSI, but I continue to believe the something correlated to the Sun’s activity is the causation. Having said that, time to move back to Evans’ theory.
“The timing for the cooling is indicated by the delay…..The delay is most likely 11 years, though definitely between 10 and 20 years. 2004 + 11 = 2015.”
Evans says the average delay is 11 years but he thinks it will probably be one of 13 years this time, thus the coolingis likely begin in 2017.
HOW MUCH COOLING
Evans believes that:
“The changes in solar radiation are tiny, and have an almost insignificant immediate effect on Earth’s temperatures. However the physical interpretation of the notch and delay show that these little changes foretell the changes in a newly detected climate influence from the Sun, which we are calling “force X” for now. The effect on temperatures of changes in force X is 10 to 20 times as great as the immediate effect of changes in solar radiation.”
“If the temperature on Earth is entirely controlled by solar effects, the cooling will return us to the temperature levels of the 1950s or even the 1920s, undoing the last 50 or 100 years of global warming in just a few short years.
The temperature data from land thermometers from 1850 to 1978 may have exaggerated past temperature rises. The solar model here trained on that data so it may be too sensitive, in which case the imminent cooling will not be as large as shown in absolute terms.
At least a small portion of the recent global warming was due to rising carbon dioxide, so the fall will not be as large as shown in Figure 2.”
Evans’ predicted temperature drop is very big over a short time frame. If this comes to pass, the consequences could be profound and not beneficial. Reduced crop harvests might result is some serious global food shortages. On the bright side, such a drop would hopefully end the huge waste of money by disproving the malignant catastrophic man made global warming theory.
In this paper, Evans also explores “Solar versus Carbon Dioxide , Theories and Falsifiabilty, Old temperatures and What’s next. These topics are relavant and worth reading.
The paper also has links to the home page that will provide the reader more detail on Evan’s theory. Topics are:
- Part I: New Solar climate model
- Part II: A mysterious notch filter found in the climate
- Part III: The notch means a delay
- Part IV: What could cause the solar delay?
- Part V: Modeling the escaping heat.
- Part VI: The parts of solar climate model
Click on these topics to access Evans’ more detail explations of this program.
No matter how his new climate program fares, he is to be commended for his openness and willingness to let his theory be judged by his peers.