IS SOLAR CYCLE 24 GOING ROUGE?


What is going on with Solar Cycle 24?   It began with a whisper and until rougeSun threerecently,  it continued that way. It peaked at international sunspot number(ISN) of 66.9 in February 2012 and many thought that would be the high for Solar Cycle 24. But wait, a second peak formed and the question is, when will it stop growing?   Best guesses say that the peak will be somewhere around 80 (ISN). NASA says: “Many cycles are double peaked but this is the first in which the second peak in sunspot number was larger than the first.”

Solar Cycle 24 does rank as one of the weakest cycle in the past 110 years. See the chart below from Climate Change Sanity:

Cycle # Peak SSN Cycle History
Began Ended Duration, mo.s
12 75 Dec 1878 March 1890 136
13 88 March 1890 Feb 1902 143
14 65 Feb 1902 Aug 1913 128
15 105 Aug 1913 Aug 1923 120
16 78 Aug 1923 Sept 1933 121
17 120 Sept 1933 Feb 1944 125
18 152 Feb 1944 April 1954 122
19 202 April 1954 Oct 1964 126
20 110 Oct 1964 June 1976 140
21 165 June 1976 Sept 1986 123
22 158 Sept 1986 June 1996 117
23 121 June 1996 Dec 2008 149
24 ? Dec 2008  ?

 

Further, Solar Cycle 24 is still well below its predecessor, Solar Cycle 23 as can be seen in the chart below. (Click on Charts to enlarge.)

March+14sunspot cycles23_24Chart courtsey of:   solen.info.solar/

Jan Alvestad, the creator of the chart, is projecting the peak ISN to be less than 80—see the green line.

So far in April, the highest daily peak was been nearly 150.   See the SILSO chart below:

march:aprilmonthlysilso14EISNcurrent

SILSO’s 2014 Solar Cycle 24 ISN sunspot projection for 2014 is shown below:

marchsilsosunspotprediSCCM2They use two methods for making their projections. The methods are briefly described here and here.  But one method exceeds 80 and one nears but not reach 80.

When a Solar Cycle is at the “maximum” that is the time it will have a maximum of sunspots. So far that is what 24 is doing and even at an ISN of 80 it will be the least active since Solar Cycle 16 that began in August, 1923 and lasted until September, 1933.

cbdakota

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