The Department of Energy (DOE) projects that global energy consumption will increase 56% between 2010 and 2040 from 524 quadrillion Btus to 820 quadrillion Btus.
This chart, by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the DOE, shows that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations, which represents North America, Europe, Japan and Australia along with others, energy usage growth will be modest. The non-OECD nations will nearly double their energy usage. This is not surprising. Led by the population giants, China, India and Brazil, these nation’s objectives are to move their people up to levels similar to that which the Eastern Europeans now enjoy.
It is notable that fossil fuels are still forecast to supply about 80% of the world’s energy demand. Tight gas (fracking) et al, are the fastest growing sources in this projection. Renewables, while increasing to about 15 % of the world’s energy demand by 2014, are still minor players.
The projection by the EIA for the US energy consumption is about the same as their 2040 global forecast in that fossil fuels will supply about 80% of the demand and renewables, will still be a minor player, at about 10%
The chart below shows the EIA US forecast through 2040.
Chart courtesy of AEI (Carpe Diem blog)
It is instructive to see what the EIA projects as the breakdown of renewable sources in 2040.
EIA forecasts solar and wind as being less than half of the renewable’s supply by 2040 which makes them even lesser minor players. President Obama says that fossil fuels are the “energy sources of the past,” and that renewables are “energy sources of the future”. His Administration’s DOE, doesn’t seem to agree. Who do you think is more likely to know what they are talking about –the President or the DOE?