Joe Bastardi produced a chart which shows actual global temperature anomalies and atmospheric CO2 from the 1960s to the present time. P. Gosselin extended the chart for the next 17 years (to 2030) with predicted global temperature anomalies versus atmospheric CO2 . Gosselin is showing what he believes to be the probable divergence—-further demonstrating that CO2 will not be controlling global temperature. Gosselin’s premise is that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are currently and will continue to be, the primary forcing agents for global temperatures. His adaptation of Bastardi’s chart is below: (Click on Chart to increase size.)
“I asked myself what is it going to look like in 10 or 15 years with the negative AMO and PDO (let’s leave out the solar activity slumber for now) continuing. So I took the Climate4You chart, cut and extended it out to the year 2030. We know CO2 is going to keep rising. Next I simply extended the negative phase of the AMO and PDO global temp out to 2030 so that it’s behaves similarly to the last negative phase for the 1950s, 60s and 70s.”
In case you are having trouble remembering the details about AMO and PDO, here is a little background. The Northern Atlantic sea surface temperature cycles from warm to cool. The Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature north of 20°North also cycles from warm to cool as well. The cycle length is something like 20 to 30 years. The cause of the sea surface temperature cycle is not settled, although there are advocates for different causation. Suffice it to say, it happens and when they are both in the cool phase, the global temperature drops and it rises when the sea surface temperatures are warm. To see a video that discusses these phenomena, click here.
Gosselin adds these comments:
“Now you know why the warmists are crapping bricks big time right now. They see the writing on the wall – they know the Great Climate Scam has got but only a few more years to live, and then it is over! RIP! It’s going to get worse with every passing year. In fact, let’s hope CO2 skyrockets to 500 ppm soon…it’ll make their error look even more profound”.
Will the AMO and PDO negative phase repeat its self as Gosselin’s chart postulates? Well, we don’t know, of course, but the negative global temperature trend is already in evidence and so directionally it seems likely.
I think that as the oceans cool, the CO2 released by the oceans will decline. More will be absorbed or saying it another way, less CO2 will be released. If this is the case, the rise of atmospheric CO2 will slow down.