The second draft of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was leaked to the internet on 13 December. It is generating a lot of discussion. So far the main talking point seems be that the leaked report says that the Sun is as great a forcing agent as is CO2. I scanned the “Summary For Policy Makers” (SPM) from the leaked draft. I don’t see that view being reflected there. One of the 13 lead author of Chapter 7 “Clouds and Aerosols” was interviewed by Australia’s ABC TV network and he said Chapter 7 does not say the Sun is a major factor. Chapter 8 “Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcings” also discusses this issue. While I think that the Sun is a major forcing agent, much more powerful than CO2, I have little doubt that the final report will not say that. Especially the SPM. The full report is large and quite technical. Most people do not read it and you can bet that no politician or journalist anywhere in the world will read the full report. So the SPM, in the past, ignored any scientific conclusion that did not fit the narrative of catastrophic man-made global warm. It will again.
There are other findings, like the scientist that is an official reviewer who reports that there is an important paper showing no increase in atmospheric water vapor. Using CO2 alone in the climate models,will not provide the high temperatures needed to project catastrophic global warming. So, the IPCC maintains that there is a positive feedback where an increase in atmospheric CO2 causes an increase in water vapor. Water vapor as you know is the major “greenhouse gas”. Measurements have never supported their theory, but the IPCC clings to it. The paper mentioned is more proof that the positive feedback theory is bogus.
AR5 will be issued October 2014. The SPM will be issued before the final report is issued. To read the leaked draft click here.