Monthly Archives: June 2012

BP Tries For Natural Gas In Jordan


BP has begun drilling for natural gas in the Risha field in eastern Jordan near the border with Iraq.  In 2009 BP was given 4 years to explore for natural gas in this field.   After two years of preparation, BP says they expect the to take 3 or 4 months of drilling to prove out.  Jordan is hoping that this effort with BP will lead to the discovery of extensive recoverable gas reserves, which will help cut dependence on oil imports to fuel Jordan’s power sector and industries. According to a posting in Al Arabiya:

The government strategy calls for Risha to produce 330 million cubic feet of gas per day by 2015. The field has a current modest daily output of about 18 million cubic feet. The kingdom, which imports most of its energy, is struggling to meet electricity demand, which is growing by more than 7 percent per year, due to fast growing population and rising industrial needs.

cbdakota

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Climate Model Forecasts Proven Wrong


Where would the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW, aka: man-made global warming) be if it weren’t for the climate models that forecast devastatingly high temperatures, sea level change that will make hundreds of millions of people homeless, mass extinctions of all manner of creatures, etc? What if those forecasts consistently were in error?  You would have to conclude, that the warmers don’t have a viable theory and they would quickly fade away.  Well, the forecasts are consistently in error and warmers still have not faded away.  So what is going on?

Because it is Father’s Day, let’s look at James Hansen’s (father of the current man-made global warming cult) forecast presented to the US Congress in 1988:

Chart from: James Hansen et al. Global Climate Changes as Forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies Three-Dimensional Model journal of Geophysical Research.

The chart forecasts a global temperature increase that will be caused by different levels of CO2 emissions.  Scenarios “A” (blue) which postulated an increase in CO2 emissions by 1.5% per year
 and “B” (green): constant increase in CO2 emissions after 2000
 and “C” (red): no increase in CO2 emissions after 2000The black line is the actual global temperature.

Since 2000, the CO2 emissions have increased about 2.5% per year.  So one would expect the observed temperature to have exceeded the blue line “A”. Yet we see the actual temperature increase matching or perhaps coming in lower than that forecast by the red line “C” that was based upon a forecast of O% per year increase in CO2 after 2000. How many ways can you say FAIL!!!

Hansen’s influential presentation was widely broadcast and had a profound effect on Congress.  If you had been in the Capitol that day, you might have become concerned.   But with time, the Hansen forecast has been demonstrated to be very wrong.   The Chart above came from Wattsupwiththat (WUWT) blog and the comments by readers to the WUWT posting are quite interesting.  The warmers that commented essentially said—well, sure, it was wrong but some things happened; volcanoes, less fluorocarbons in the atmosphere, less methane in the atmosphere and the positive feedback he used is now imagined to be less than it was imagined to be at the time of the Hansen forecast.

Wow, that is a lot of things going wrong considering we are still being told that only CO2 really matters.  Isn’t it amazing that when the forecasts play out for a lot of years (in Hansen’s case, 24 years), only then can you find out if they are really any good.  Forecasting today what the world will look like in 2100 is an interesting exercise but only fools would believe that it was likely to be accurate.

We know that money and control drives the warmers and the politicians to continue this charade.  But the media has bought into this lock, stock and barrel.  What drives them?  I know that bad news (fear of global warming caused catastrophe) sells more papers than good news.  And the falling readership that the mainstream media is experiencing, makes them desperate to continue echoing everything the green alarmists say.  Why are there no latter-day Woodwards and Bernsteins that want to expose the lies after some 20 years of flat global temperatures and failed predictions?   Skeptics are gaining the upper hand with regard to public opinion, but if the media owned up to the facts and began questioning the AGW theory, this round of Lysenkoism could be ended.

cbdakota

  

Cycle 24 May Update


Not much new. Solar Cycle 24 is tracking the recent forecasts and should reach a Maximum in the Spring of 2013.  Below are the updated through May charts (click on charts to clarify):

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The Ill-informed Bishop And The Wind Turbines


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EPA Gives Honda Fit EV A 118 MPG (eq) Rating


The EPA gave the Honda Fit EV a 118 mpg equivalency rating. This is their best rating yet for a passenger car.  My daughter owns a Fit, IC engine, and gets great mileage and has experienced very low maintenance and up keep costs.  It’s a very good vehicle. But most all of the EPA rating mileage equivalent for EVs and hybrids have come down as the owners face the real world of driving.  The EPA is rating the Leaf at 73 mpg equivalent.  Read my posting of a Tennessee Leaf owner’s trip  here.

The new EPA rating for the Chevy Volt is 38 mpg versus the former 35 mpg.  This change stemmed from an upgraded Li-ion battery that can hold a 16.5 kWH charge versus the former 16 kWH.   Added a half hour to the battery charge time however. To read more click here.

cbdakota

Eastern Med Oil and Gas Discoveries—Israel and Cyprus


Natural gas and oil producers normally are not the way that Israel and Cyprus are characterized, but recent discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean are changing that perception.

The Levantine Basin in Eastern Mediterranean (Source: USGS)

Israel  Two years ago, in June 2010, the Leviathan, the largest gas field in the Eastern Mediterranean was discovered by Houston’s Noble Energy.  The natural gas reserves in that find that are in Israeli territorial waters are estimated to be something in the range of 25 trillion cubic feet (Tcf).   Some experts are estimating that there might also be up to 600 million barrels of oil.  And that is not all.  The Israeli Tamar field is believed to contain more that 8 Tcf of natural gas. The Energy Tribune’s posting by Michael Economides notes that:

A statement released on Sunday by the Israel Opportunity energy exploration partnership said that prospecting at the Pelagic group of deep-sea fields, west of Haifa, showed a potential of 6.7 Tcf of gas and 1.4 billion barrels of oil.  

These finds are very timely, because Egypt has ended its contract to supply gas to Israel

 Cyprus  In December 2011 Noble Energy announced that their first well in the Cypriot Economic Zone of the Leviathan Field contains up to 9 Tcf of natural gas.   Energy Tribune reports:

The size of the ultimate recoverable gas in the Eastern Mediterranean, according to the United States Geological Survey, is of the order of 200 Tcf of natural gas and 3.7 billion barrels of oil. A dozen new Cypriot blocks, currently in the process of being offered to international bidders, will almost certainly add 50 Tcf, perhaps 75 Tcf to the already discovered.

On-shore delivery from the Levantine basin will not be easy.  The gas is located about 20,000 feet below sea level —6,000 feet to sea bottom and then an additional 14,000 feet of required drilling.) Further it is believed that the gas will need to be liquefied and delivered on shore by tanker because it will be too deep to put in piping. The size and cost of these facilities are the sort of things that can be managed by large oil firms but to date, these companies seem reluctant to work with the Israelis for fear of antagonizing their Arab partners.

The solution as outlined by Economides is:

Israel will need Cyprus to exploit its resources by employing the right size company to construct e.g., LNG or gas-to-liquids (GTL) plants. The size of the resources cannot allow them to even remotely be consumed domestically; export is the only option. The Cypriot and Israel reservoirs should be unified; they are geologically contiguous anyway. Cyprus, in turn, will need the shield provided by Israel in relation to saber rattling Turkey. The Israeli-Cypriot marriage is made in oil and gas heaven.

cbdakota

Not Much Joy In EV Land—May Sales Data


The Chevy Volt hybrid May sales were 1680 up from 1462 in April.  The forecast annual sales of 45,000 seem to be a stretch with only 7057 Volts sold year-to-date.  A little arithmetic says that about 38,000 Volts need to be sold in the remaining 7 months of 2012.

The Nissan Leaf sales of 510 in May were up slightly over the 370 sold in May. Year-to-date leaf sales are 2613. The Nisan people maintain that they will sell 20,000 Leafs in 2012.  But the still under construction Smyrna, Tennessee plant, said to be capable of making 150,000 Leafs annually, is not scheduled to startup until late this year.  Until then, Nissan will supply the market from Japan.

Underperforming would seem to be the proper word for hybrid and EV sales in the US.  High gas prices and still the sales are anemic.  One more example of Obama’s costly green energy plan not living up to his overblown promises.

cbdakota