If They Could REALLY Model Global Climate Only One Model Would Be Needed


The chart below is from Dr Roy Spencer’s blog “Global Warming”.  It shows the output from 14 different climate models versus the CERES Global satellite measurement of heat loss into space.  This chart was assembled in response to criticism by Warmers that he had cherry picked the climate models he used to contrast their performance versus his work in a recently published paper in Remote Sensing. Following the post publication criticism, Dr Spencer has done a little tweaking but nothing that changes his conclusions.   See here  and here for discussion of this issue.

But this posting is not to review the bidding on Dr Spencer’s paper.   It is to talk about the Warmer’ Global Climate Models.  Whenever I see this assembly of Warmer Global Climate Models output, I wonder why anyone believes the predictions they make.  If they could REALLY model our global climate they would only need one model.   Instead, all 14 give different results!!!   Does that really instill you with a lot of confidence in their ability to do skillful prediction?    What the 14 models do is allow them to make predictions based upon the most extreme model output.  It also allows them to match just about any condition at any time with at least one of the models.  Think—-A stopped watch tells the right time two times a day.

cbdakota

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One response to “If They Could REALLY Model Global Climate Only One Model Would Be Needed

  1. Dear Prof. Chomsky,

    I remember enjoying a summer afternoon with family and friends, sitting under a large pine tree for shade. This particular tree could be beyond the century mark, judging from its size and character. The conversation occasionally would switch for family events to the incredibly hot month we are having, as expected when the temperature is constantly above one hundred degrees. “July was the hottest month in Texas’ recorded history” said a family friend. “And nobody believes in climate change” I replied, trying to read the popular opinion of the backyard.

    The poll results were a bit disturbing, it seems a majority of the populous shading themselves from the afternoon sun, believe that man-made climate change is a hoax. One doubter argued, “The average temperature of the globe is higher than it is today.”

    Read more at http://www.conversationwithnoam.com

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