The chart below is from Dr Roy Spencer’s blog “Global Warming”. It shows the output from 14 different climate models versus the CERES Global satellite measurement of heat loss into space. This chart was assembled in response to criticism by Warmers that he had cherry picked the climate models he used to contrast their performance versus his work in a recently published paper in Remote Sensing. Following the post publication criticism, Dr Spencer has done a little tweaking but nothing that changes his conclusions. See here and here for discussion of this issue.
But this posting is not to review the bidding on Dr Spencer’s paper. It is to talk about the Warmer’ Global Climate Models. Whenever I see this assembly of Warmer Global Climate Models output, I wonder why anyone believes the predictions they make. If they could REALLY model our global climate they would only need one model. Instead, all 14 give different results!!! Does that really instill you with a lot of confidence in their ability to do skillful prediction? What the 14 models do is allow them to make predictions based upon the most extreme model output. It also allows them to match just about any condition at any time with at least one of the models. Think—-A stopped watch tells the right time two times a day.