Dr. David Evans has posted “Four Fatal Pieces of Evidence” demonstrating that using computer climate models as the basis for man-made global warming (AGW) theory is, in Dr. Evans’ view, “violently at odds with reality”. He maintains there is “no empirical evidence that global warming is mainly man-made. If there was, we would have heard about it. Tens of billions of dollars have been spent looking for it.”Dr Evans uses four pieces of evidence to illustrate his position.
First: Evans examines the Climate Model predictions made by James Hansen (the so-called godfather of AGW) during his testimony to the US Congress in 1988.(click on chart to enlarge)
Evans says:”… the actual temperature rises are about a third of what he predicted. Remember, they have been saying the “science is settled” since the early 80’s, and the models now are essentially the same as they were then.
Furthermore, Hansen’s models predicted the temperature rise if human carbon dioxide emissions were cut back drastically starting in 1988, such that by year 2000 the atmospheric carbon dioxide level was not rising at all. But in reality, the temperature did not even rise that much. Which proves that the climate models don’t have a clue about the effect of carbon dioxide on world temperature.”
Second: Evans looks at ocean warming. This is a better gauge of global warming than is measuring atmospheric temperature fluctuations. The Argo Buoys were put into service in 2003. The measurements of ocean temperatures prior to the Argo program are suspect in my view. Nothing before 2003 remotely resembles the scope of Argo measurements.(click on chart to enlarge)
Evans says: the climate models predict the oceans should be warming. We’ve only been measuring ocean temperature properly since 2003, using the ARGO system. In ARGO, a buoy duck dives down to 2000m, slowly ascends and reads the temperatures on the way, then radios the result back by satellite to HQ. Three thousand ARGO buoys patrol the oceans constantly. They say that the ocean temperature since 2003 has been basically flat. Again, reality is very different to the climate models.
Thirdly: Evans looks at the “hotspot” which was a climate computer prediction which is the Warmers’ proof of the positive feedback. Feedback that is able to take a weak CO2 forcing signal and double or triple it. Unfortunately for the advocates of this hypothesis, the hotspot does not exist.(click on chart to enlarge)
Evans says: “the climate models predict a particular pattern of atmospheric warming during periods of global warming. In particular, the most prominent change they predict is a warming in the tropics about 10 km up, the so-called “hotspot”. But we have been measuring atmospheric temperatures by weather balloons since the 1960s, and millions of weather balloons say there was no such hotspot during the last warming from 1975 to 2001. The hotspot is integral to their theory, because it would be evidence of the extra evaporation and thickening of the water vapor blanket that produces two thirds of the warming in the climate models…”
Fourthly: Evans hits on one of the most discussed topic in recent times—that of outgoing radiation into space. Note in the chart below that the top row left is the actual measurements of outgoing radiation by the stat elite ERBE program (Earth Radiation Budget Experiment-click here for more information.) The other boxes are climate model predictions. (Chart source=Lindzen and Choi 2009)
Evans says: “satellites have measured the outgoing radiation from the earth and found that the earth gives off more heat when the surface is warmer, and less heat in months when the earth’s surface is cooler. Who could have guessed? But the climate models say the opposite, that the Earth gives off less heat when the surface is warmer, because they trap heat too aggressively (positive feedback). Again, the climate models are violently at odds with reality.”
Evans sums up saying:” Those are four independent pieces of evidence that the climate models are fundamentally flawed. Anyone one of them, by itself, disproves the theory of man-made global warming. There are also other, more complex, pieces of evidence. Remember, there is no direct evidence that man causes global warming, so if the climate models are wrong then so is the theory.”
Read all of Evan’s posting here.