You remember from previous postings on this site, that Penn and Livingston have been measuring Sunspot magnetic field strength and the temperature and luminosity of the umbra.   They began this study in 1990 and as of 2010 they have analyzed some 17,000 spots. Plotted on the chart below are data from their paper LONG-TERM EVOLUTION OF SUNSPOT MAGNETIC FIELDS through 2010 and additional readings since:

Chart courtesy of Lief Svalgaard

Focusing on the bottom chart, sunspots are plotted against magnetic field strength and time. The individual dots are representative of sunspots.  The larger blue dot represents the normalized sunspot number for each year. The black line is the trend line for the umbral magnetic field of the sunspots. The horizontal blue line indexes a magnetic field strength of ca. 1500 Gauss. Note that the sunspots extend vertically above the trend line, and below the trend line but not below the 1500 Gauss line.  The two scientists speculate that sunspots do not form when the magnetic field strength is less than 1500 Gauss.  If the trend line continues on this same slope, somewhere around the year 2025+/- at least half of the sunspots will disappear.

Using a linear decrease of 65 Gauss per year and a cycle duration of 11 years, they computed the magnetic probability distribution function for Cycles 24 and 25. Using this, a sunspot number is forecast. Cycles 24 and 25 are shown along with actual data from Cycle 23 in the chart below from their paper:

Chart provided by David Archibald, from the paper by Livingston and Penn.

The contrast of Cycle 24 and specifically Cycle 25 from the completed Cycle 23 is quite dramatic.  The Cycle 24 forecast, so far, seems to be reasonably in tune with actual data.  At a Cycle 25 sunspot number of 7, David Archibald says it would be the lowest sunspot number for a Cycle in 300 years!!!!

Livingston and Penn say that if the linear decrease were 50 Gauss per year rather than 65, the Cycle 25 sunspot number would be 20 which is still a very low number.

Livingston and Penn caution that it is always risky to extrapolate linear trends.

Next posting on this topic will be an examination of David Hathaway’s 2006 forecast of both Cycle 24 and Cycle 25.  It will also discuss one of the underlying theories for the decrease in sunspots.

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The Homestake Gold mine in Lead SD, discovered in 1876, produced 40 million ounces of gold and 9 million ounces of silver. At the time of its closure in 2002, the mine was more than 8000 feet below the surface   Based on Tucker’s formula, the temperature at the 8000 foot level would be around 180F unless cooling air was introduced. .  At one time, one of my relatives (by marriage) was the engineer responsible for keeping the temperature in the mine at a level that would allow people to work.  And his description of what was needed to do that was pretty impressive.

Tucker goes on to say: “At 80 miles down we hit the Mohorovicic Discontinuity, discovered by Yugoslav seismologist Andrija Mohorovicic in 1909. At this point the temperature reaches 900^o C and rock turns to liquid “magma.” At 1500 miles deep the temperature rises to 3700^o C and another discontinuity – the Gutenberg – marks the place where molten rock becomes pure iron and nickel. Below that tremendous pressures turn the iron core solid once again and temperatures reaching 7,000^o C – hotter than the surface of the sun.”

He explains that the source of this heat energy as follows: “Some of it is due to gravitational forces. As the earth is pulled inward, some of this force is translated into heat. Another portion is residual heat from the earth’s formation. According to the commonly accepted theory, originally proposed by Immanuel Kant, the solar system precipitated out of a huge swirling dust cloud, where particles kept colliding with each other until they agglomerated into the sun and the planets.

In the later stages, this involved huge collisions among very large objects. These impacts generate large amounts of heat, some of which still remains in the earth’s core. Together gravitational forces and residual heat probably account for about 40 percent of the earth’s temperature – the exact figure has still not been determined.

The other half of the earth’s heat, however, comes from a remarkable diminutive source – the slow breakdown of two of the 90 elements, uranium and thorium. With 92 protons, uranium is the largest natural atom, while thorium (90) is the third largest. Because of their size, they are unstable, meaning they are “radioactive.”

The internal “binding energy” that overrides the mutual repulsion among positively charged protons is occasionally overcome itself. This releases large quantities of energy, which sets subatomic particles in motion, creating large amounts of heat. Incredibly, the slow breakdown of these two radioactive elements, uranium and thorium, is enough to raise the earth’s internal temperature beyond the level of the surface of the sun.”

Tucker draws some conclusions from this when he says: “Why don’t we just take the source of that heat – the uranium or thorium – bring it to the surface, and reproduce or even accelerate the process that produces this heat in a controlled environment?

This is what we do in a “nuclear reactor.”  “A nuclear reactor is nothing more than terrestrial energy brought to the surface. There is nothing sinful or diabolical about it. We are not defying the laws of nature. Rather, we are working with a process that already takes place in nature.”

h/t Master Resource

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“A New Threat to Honey Bees, the Parasitic Phorid Fly Apocephalus borealis” has been posted on the Plosone.org website and the abstract can be read by clicking here.  Two photos from the study are shown below:

Parasitic Fly on Bee –above

Larva Emerging From Dead Bee–below.

Studies of Colony Collapse find that parasites and fungal diseases as well as pesticides are also partially responsible for the bee deaths.

Perhaps you remember that frog deaths and malformations were also said to be caused by global warming.  Now it seems clear that it is flukes, unrelated to global warming, that are largely responsible for these deaths and malformations.  See here

It is well known in the scientific community that if you say the problem is caused by global warming, there are monies available from our government and environmental advocate associations for the researcher to continue studying this “alarming” discovery.   But this could result in destruction of the researcher reputation when real scientist determine the actual cause.  Think Michael Mann.

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Quoting from the newspaper story:

Only problem was, the Leaf’s charge dropped more rapidly than promised. In what has to be a public relations disaster for Nissan, Smith’s EV was unable to travel no farther than 55 miles on any leg of the trip – and for the most part, much less. The company, and its government backers, proclaimed [5] the Leaf was “built to go 100 miles on a charge” (large print), with a footnoted disclaimer (small print) that it travels shorter distances (like, 70 miles) if the air conditioning or the heater is used. Turns out even that was an exaggeration.   A trip that should take – according to map Web sites – less than three hours, ended up lasting six hours for the Smiths because of all the stops they had to make. The approximate intervals where they paused for recharging were as follows:

• Knoxville to Harriman: 45 miles
• Harriman to Crossville: 31 miles
• Crossville to Cookeville: 31 miles
• Cookeville to Lebanon: 50 miles

Lebanon to destination in Antioch, just south of Nashville: 22 miles

“It was a little nerve wracking,” Stephen Smith told the Nashville-based newspaper. “I’m finding the range is not 100 percent accurate.”

A further quote from the article:

The Smiths’ experience echoed that of a Consumer Reports reviewer [2] and Los Angeles columnist Rob Eshman [3], who called his Leaf his “2011 Nissan Solyndra.” Eshman, editor-in-chief of The Jewish Journal, experienced the same gauge inaccuracies and range anxiety that came from traversing hills and mountains and the use of his air conditioning in hot, smoggy L.A. 

“My life now revolves around a near-constant calculation of how far I can drive before I’ll have to walk,” Eshman wrote. “The Nissan Leaf, I can report, is perfect if you don’t have enough anxiety in your life.”

Bonus geography question—- How many State of Tennessee towns are named ANTIOCH?    See below.

Antioch, TN, Bedford County

Antioch, TN, Davidson County

Antioch, TN, DeKalb County

Antioch, TN, Haywood County

Antioch, TN, Henderson County

Antioch, TN, Jackson County

Antioch, TN, Knox County

Antioch, TN, Lawrence County

Antioch, TN, Loudon County

Antioch, TN, Montgomery County

Makes you wonder how that ever happened.

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Sunspots are the product of the enormous magnetic fields created on the Sun. What make them especially interesting is that the Earth’s climate and sunspots have a high degree of correlation.   Periods where the climate has cooled off seem to coincide with periods of few sunspots and periods of warmer climate seem to coincide with periods of high sunspot counts.

Sunspots appear as dark spots on the face of the Sun.  Very strong magnetic forces (thousands of times stronger than Earths magnetic field) block the hot solar plasma and sunspots are the result.  The spots are cooler than the surrounding surface of the Sun.  NASA says that the spots are about 3700K versus 5700K for the surrounding photosphere.

©UCAR, image courtesy Matthias Rempel, NCAR

The photo sh0ws the “spot” (the umbra) surrounded by the penumbra that is shaped by the magnetic lines of force. 

Livingston and Penn have studied over 1700 spots and they see a trend in which the darkest parts of the sunspot umbra have become warmer (45K per year) and their magnetic field strengths have decreased (77 Gauss per year**), independently of the normal 11-year sunspot cycle.

The latest data is shown in the two charts, UMBRAL INTENSITY AND UMBRAL MAGNETIC FIELD.

Charts courtesy of Leif Svalgaard

The umbral intensity is a measurement of the light from the umbra (the dark center) and compared to a measurement of the light from a calm sun surface.  Note that the umbra is getting hotter and brighter as the umbral magnetic field gets weaker.  The two scientists believe that if the magnetic field weakens to ≈1500 gauss, the sunspots will not form.   If the trend continues linearly,  that could happen in this decade. 

If there are no visible sunspots in Cycle 25,  it could mean that we would be experiencing a solar minimum like the Maunder minimum that heralded in the Little Ice Age. It should be noted that while this is a suggestion, rather than a promise, it certainly is consistent with the observable trend of a less energetic Sun.

** Gauss is measure of the strength of a magnetic field.  Its units are Maxwells per square centimeter.  A small bar magnet will range from 40 to 100 gauss. The Sun’s average magnetic field strength is 1 and the Earth’s is 0.5.

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High speeds (70+mph)

Aggressive Accelerations

Steep incline

So, no driving in the mountains with the pedal to the metal in cold weather.

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The Richter Scale, used to gauge the energy contained in an earthquake, is a logarithmic scale, not a linear scale.  According to Wiki,  an earthquake that measures 5 on the Richter Scale has a shaking amplitude 10 times larger and corresponds to an energy release that is 31.6 time greater than one that measures 4 on the Richter Scale.  Every step up in a whole number is a ten-fold increase in the size and severity of the quake.

Click  here to see Atlantic’s visual comparison:

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CLICK ON CHARTS FOR BETTER VIEW

Solar Activity/Geomagnetism

The Ap index is a good proxy for overall solar activity. For two months it has declined.  We are seeing Cycle 24 peaks in F10.7, and sunspots simultaneously with this drop in Ap.  It may mean that the spots and F10.7 may soon be trending downward as well.

If you  are interested,  the following is a brief explanation of the various ways geomagnetism is expressed.

The magnetic activity indices K, Kp and ap are designed to measure the variations in the geomagnetic field that arise from current systems caused by regular solar radiation changes. Other irregular current systems produce magnetic field changes caused by the interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere, by the magnetosphere itself, by the interactions between the magnetosphere and ionosphere, and by the ionosphere itself.

The planetary 3-hour range index Kp is the mean K-index from 13 geomagnetic observatories.  The scale is 0 to 9 expressed in thirds of a unit, 5-  is 4 2/3, 5 is 5 and 5+ is 5 1/3.  This planetary index is designed to measure particle radiation by its magnetic effects.  The 3-hourly ap (equivalent range) index is derive from the Kp index as follows:

Kp = 0o   0+   1-   1o   1+   2-   2o   2+   3-   3o   3+   4-   4o   4+

ap =  0     2     3      4     5     6     7       9    12   15    18     22   27   32

Kp = 5-    5o    5+   6-   6o    6+    7-     7o     7+     8-     8o     8+    9-     9o

ap = 39   48   56    67   80   94   111  132    154   179   207  236  300  400

Now one more derivation to get to the Ap index.   The  Ap index is defined as the earliest occurring maximum 24-hour value  obtained by computing an 8-point running average of successive 3-hour ap indices during a geomagnetic storm event.

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The magnets that can be made from several of the elements are vastly more powerful that those made from cobalt, the previous best permanent magnet making metal. Two of the rare earths commonly used are Neodymium and Samarium.  They are alloyed with other metals to form permanent magnets.  These magnets are replacing non-rare earth alloy magnets in electric motor assemblies because of their magnetic field strength.  These rare earth alloy magnets can be made smaller to reduce weight and still create high magnetic flux for electric motors.  It is said that the magnetic attraction is so powerful that if your finger is between two of these magnets you will likely experience a fractured finger.

Pure Neodymium has a low Curie temperature so it is only magnetic at low temperatures. Above the Curie point it’s parallel alignment of the magnetic field lines become disordered and it loses its magnetism.  To overcome this problem, Neodymium is alloyed with boron and iron to make a permanent magnet that can operate up to approximately 300 C.  The rare earths are also vulnerable to corrosion.  This problem is resolved by plating.

Although Samarium has a higher Curie temperature, it plays a smaller role than Neodymium because it is more expensive and creates a weaker magnetic field.  It is commonly alloyed with Cobalt.

The price and geopolitics are playing a role in the use of rare earths.  According to a November 16, 2011 NYTimes article, the prices of rare earths are dropping:

International prices for some light rare earths, like cerium and lanthanum, used in the polishing of flat-screen televisions and the refining of oil, respectively, have fallen as much as two-thirds since August and are still dropping. Prices have declined by roughly one-third since then for highly magnetic rare earths, like neodymium, needed for products like smartphones, computers and large wind turbines.

A chart of the price versus time for Neodymium is shown below:

The price for Neodymium appears to be at about $350 per kilogram.

There are some geopolitical ramifications surrounding rare earths:  Again from the Times posting:

China mines 94 percent of the rare earth metals in the world. Through 2008, it supplied almost all of the global annual demand outside of China of 50,000 to 55,000 tons. But it cut export quotas to a little more than 30,000 tons last year and again this year and imposed steep export taxes, producing a shortage in the rest of the world.

Together with a two-month Chinese embargo on shipments to Japan during a territorial dispute a year ago, the trade restrictions and shortage resulted in prices outside China reaching as much as 15 times the level within China last winter. That created a big incentive for companies that use rare earths in their products to move factories to China or find alternatives.

The US had some working rare earth working mines before the advent of the Chinese.  I have read that one in California is planning to resume production now that the prices have reached a point where working the mine is economical.

Stay tuned.

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